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An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India

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  • Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar
  • George, Asish Thomas

Abstract

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been increasingly used by various central banks for assessing the direction and strength of economic activity. One of the sub-indices or component level information provided by PMI is that of industrial input and output prices trends as surveyed by firms’ purchasing managers. In this context, the paper tries to examine whether these PMI manufacturer’s price diffusion indices serve as a useful indicator for understanding changes in WPI in India. The analysis was carried out using both OLS estimates and ARDL approach to cointegration for the period April 2005 to October 2012. It is found that both the PMI price indices are good indicators and have significant predictive power of the changes in WPI–All commodities and WPI–Non-food manufactured products.

Suggested Citation

  • Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & George, Asish Thomas, 2012. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between WPI and PMI-Manufacturing Price Indices in India," MPRA Paper 50929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:50929
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lahiri, Kajal & Monokroussos, George, 2013. "Nowcasting US GDP: The role of ISM business surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 644-658.
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    6. Evan F. Koenig, 2002. "Using the Purchasing Managers' Index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 1(6).
    7. Khundrakpam, Jeevan K. & Ranjan, Rajiv, 2010. "Saving-Investment Nexus and International Capital Mobility in India: Revisiting Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 49-66.
    8. Kumar Khundrakpam, Jeevan & Pattanaik, Sitikantha, 2010. "Fiscal Stimulus and Potential Inflationary Risks: An Empirical Assessment of Fiscal Deficit and Inflation Relationship in India," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 25, pages 703-721.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Francois Meyer & Thomas Habanabakize, 2018. "Analysis of Relationships and Causality between Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(6), pages 25-32.
    2. Radoslaw Sobko & Maria Klonowska-Matynia, 2021. "The Relationship between the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Economic Growth: The Case for Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 198-219.
    3. Herwadkar, Snehal S. & Ghosh, Saurabh, 2020. "Is PMI a good leading indicator of industrial production?: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 97924, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    PMI; WPI; ARDL; price; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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