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Jump Processes in Exchange Rates Modeling

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  • Bunčák, Tomáš

Abstract

This text presents a study of various models based on jump processes in the context of foreign exchange (FX) rates modeling. Quality of FX rate log-returns fit is assessed for models such as Merton and Kou jump-diffusions, normal inverse Gaussian, variance gamma, and Meixner. The study is illustrated by simulation results that are provided for each of the models considered. Jump models are contrasted to the well-known (continuous) Brownian motion model.

Suggested Citation

  • Bunčák, Tomáš, 2013. "Jump Processes in Exchange Rates Modeling," MPRA Paper 49882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49882
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51350/1/MPRA_paper_51350.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Eric Ghysels & Anders Eriksson Lars Forsberg, 2004. "Approximating the probability distribution of functions of random variables: A new approach," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 503, Econometric Society.
    3. Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ø. Nielsen & Thomas Busch, 2005. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility In The Presence Of Jumps," Working Paper 1187, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    4. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    5. Nekhili, Ramzi & Altay-Salih, Aslihan & Gençay, Ramazan, 2002. "Exploring exchange rate returns at different time horizons," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 313(3), pages 671-682.
    6. Jiang, George J., 1998. "Jump-diffusion model of exchange rate dynamics : estimation via indirect inference," Research Report 98A40, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    7. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    jump processes; foreign exchange; log-returns fit; stochastic modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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