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Long-run trend, Business Cycle & Short-run shocks in real GDP

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  • Arby, Muhammad Farooq

Abstract

Gross domestic product may be considered, a combination of three processes viz., long-run trend, business cycles and short-run shocks. The series of GDP can be decomposed in to its three components by using some statistical method. Such a decomposition of real GDP of Pakistan reveals that the Pakistan’s economy has a declining growth in long-run trend since early 1980s that however, is expected to start rising in 2001-02. Pakistan is also facing a recessionary phase of third business cycle, which is expected to end in 2004-05.

Suggested Citation

  • Arby, Muhammad Farooq, 2001. "Long-run trend, Business Cycle & Short-run shocks in real GDP," MPRA Paper 4929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4929
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4929/1/MPRA_paper_4929.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torben Mark Pedersen, 1998. "The Hodrick-Prescott Filter, the Slutzky Effect, and the Distortionary Effect of Filters," Discussion Papers 98-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. Reeves Jonathan J. & Blyth Conrad A. & Triggs Christopher M. & Small John P., 2000. "The Hodrick-Prescott Filter, a Generalization, and a New Procedure for Extracting an Empirical Cycle from a Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1999. "A Heuristic Method for Extracting Smooth Trends from Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 7439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdullah Muhammad Iqbal & Iram Khan & Zeeshan Ahmed, 2015. "Earnings Management and Privatisations: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 79-96.
    2. Muhammad Umar Draz Author_Email: umardraz2626@yahoo.com, 2011. "Impact Of Financial Crises On Pakistan And China: A Comparative Study Of Six Decades," 2nd International Conference on Business and Economic Research (2nd ICBER 2011) Proceeding 2011-529, Conference Master Resources.
    3. Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Munawar Hussain & Raja Muhammad Ahsan Ilyas & Muhammad Asif Khan, 2017. "Sensitivity analysis for the determinants of investment appraisal," The Audit Financiar journal, Chamber of Financial Auditors of Romania, vol. 15(148), pages 686-686.
    4. Lawrence Ogbeifun & Olatunji Shobande, 2020. "Debt sustainability and the fiscal reaction function: evidence from MIST countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; growth; pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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