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Adapting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for Very Small Open Economies

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  • Grech, Aaron George

Abstract

The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a commonly used method, particularly in potential output studies. However its suitability depends on a number of conditions. Very small open economies do not satisfy these as their macroeconomic series exhibit pronounced trends, large fluctuations and recurrent breaks. Consequently the use of the filter results in random changes in the output gap that are out of line with the concept of equilibrium. Two suggestions are put forward. The first involves defining the upper and lower bounds of a series and determining equilibrium as a weighted average of the filter applied separately on these bounds. The second involves an integration of structural features into the standard filter to allow researchers to set limits on the impact of structural/temporary shocks and allow for lengthy periods of disequilibria. This paper shows that these methods can result in a smoother output gap series for the smallest Euro Area economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Grech, Aaron George, 2013. "Adapting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for Very Small Open Economies," MPRA Paper 48803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48803
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Grech, Aaron George & Micallef, Brian, 2014. "Assessing the supply of the Maltese economy using a production function approach," MPRA Paper 53882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Aaron G. Grech, "undated". "Investigating potential output using the Hodrick-Prescott filter: an application for Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2014, Central Bank of Malta.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential output; output gap; Hodrick-Prescott filter; detrending; business cycles; small open economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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