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Outperforming the naïve Random Walk forecast of foreign exchange daily closing prices using Variance Gamma and normal inverse Gaussian Levy processes

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  • Teneng, Dean

Abstract

This work demonstrates that forecast of foreign exchange (FX) daily closing prices using the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) and Variance Gamma (VG) Levy processes outperform the naïve Random Walk model. We use the open software R to estimate NIG and VG distribution parameters and perform several classical goodness–of -fits test to select best models. Seven currency pairs can be forecasted by both Levy processes: TND/GBP, EGP/EUR, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, JOD/JPY, USD/GBP, and XAU/USD, while USD/JPY and QAR/JPY can be forecasted with the VG process only. RMSE values show that NIG and VG forecast are comparable, and both outperform the naïve Random Walk out of sample. Appended R-codes are original.

Suggested Citation

  • Teneng, Dean, 2013. "Outperforming the naïve Random Walk forecast of foreign exchange daily closing prices using Variance Gamma and normal inverse Gaussian Levy processes," MPRA Paper 47851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47851
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 11, pages 457-475, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    3. De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013. "Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
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    5. Helyette Geman & Dilip B. Madan & Marc Yor, 2001. "Asset Prices Are Brownian Motion: Only In Business Time," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Marco Avellaneda (ed.), Quantitative Analysis In Financial Markets Collected Papers of the New York University Mathematical Finance Seminar(Volume II), chapter 4, pages 103-146, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Jeannine Bailliu & Michael R. King, 2005. "What Drives Movements in Exchange Rates?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Autumn), pages 27-39.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Levy process; NIG; VG; forecasting; goodness of fits; foreign exchange; Random Walk model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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