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Impact of the foreign exchange rates fluctuations on returns and volatility of the Bucharest Stock Exchange

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  • Stefanescu, Razvan
  • Dumitriu, Ramona

Abstract

This paper explores the influence of the foreign exchange rates variation on the returns and volatility of the stock prices from the Romanian capital market for the period of time January 2000 - December 2012. This period was split in four sub-samples corresponding to different stages of the Romanian financial markets evolution. The GARCH models employed in this investigation provided different results. For the transition period January 2000 - December 2007 we found no evidence of the foreign exchange market on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. During a period of time between the Romania’s adhesion to European Union and the announcement of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy the results indicate a significant impact of the foreign exchange rates on the stock returns. For the period from September 2008 to February 2010 we find that foreign exchange rates influenced not only the stock returns but also their volatility. However, between March 2010 and December 2012 the impact of the foreign exchange market on the Romanian capital market was limited to the returns. We conclude that influence of the foreign exchange rates variation on the returns and volatility of the stock prices depended on the factors such as the foreign capitals inflows, the global crisis effects and the perceptions of the national economy.

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  • Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2013. "Impact of the foreign exchange rates fluctuations on returns and volatility of the Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 47229, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47229
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    Cited by:

    1. Dumitriu Ramona & Stefanescu Razvan, 2021. "TOQ Effects on the Romanian Foreign Exchange Market," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 246-253.
    2. Gnagne, Pascal Xavier & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Security Markets in BRICS Economies," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 21-50.
    3. Joshua Odutola Omokehinde & Matthew Adeolu Abata & Stephen Oseko Migiro, 2017. "Foreign Exchange News Announcements and the Volatility of Stock Returns in Nigeria," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(3), pages 3-17, july-Sept.
    4. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Gnagne, Pascal Xavier, 2017. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on capital flows in BRICS economies," MPRA Paper 84773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Narayan Parab & Ramashanti Naik & Y. V. Reddy, 2020. "The Impact of Economic Events on Stock Market Returns: Evidence from India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(11), pages 1232-1247, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Romanian financial markets; Volatility; GARCH; Global crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

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