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Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey

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  • Dağdeviren, Sengül
  • Ogus Binatli, Ayla
  • Sohrabji, Niloufer

Abstract

The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 to 2008. Misalignment, specifically overvaluation has been linked to fixed exchange rate regimes. By studying the case of Turkey during this period which covers both a fixed and floating exchange rate regime, we contribute to the literature on the relation between misalignment and exchange rate regimes. We first estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, then compute misalignment and finally test for structural breaks in the misalignment series. Through our tests we find three structural regimes which we call the pre-crisis period, the transition period and the post-crisis period. We find considerable overvaluation in first regime, which is when Turkey had a fixed exchange rate regime. This was not the case for the periods that had floating exchange rates. Thus, we conclude that overvalued currencies that have been linked to financial crises are a more serious concern for fixed exchange rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Dağdeviren, Sengül & Ogus Binatli, Ayla & Sohrabji, Niloufer, 2011. "Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 46774, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46774
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Francois Meyer & Lerato Mothibi, 2021. "The Effect of Risk Rating Agencies Decisions on Economic Growth and Investment in a Developing Country: The Case of South Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Amir H. Mozayani & Sanaz Parvizi, 2016. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC): Focusing on Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(2), pages 261-276, Spring.
    3. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; equilibrium real exchange rate; misalignment; structural breaks; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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