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Turk Lirasi Reel Kuru Denge Degerinde Mi?

Author

Listed:
  • Guzin BAYAR

    (Orta Dogu Teknik Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Iktisat Bolumu)

  • Selman TOKPUNAR

    (Gazi Universitesi, Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakultesi, Ekonometri Bolumu)

Abstract

Reel kur cok sayida makroekonomik degiskeni etkileyen onemli bir gostergedir. Bu calismada Turk Lirasi reel kurunun uzun dönemli denge degeri ve bu denge degerinden ne kadar uzakta oldugu ekonometrik olarak incelenmistir. Tamamen Degistirilmis En Kucuk Kareler Yontemi (FMOLS) kullanilarak olusturulan uzun vadeli modelde, reel kur bagimli degisken olarak ve “Turkiye ve OECD Ulkelerinin Goreli Birim Is Gucu Maliyetleri”, “Turkiye’ye Yurt Disindan Sermaye Akimlari”, “Turkiye’nin GSYH’si”, “Dis Ticaret Hacmi/GSYH Orani” bagimsiz degiskenler olarak alinmistir. Regresyon analizinin sonuclari, Balassa-Samuelson etkisini dogrulamaktadir; Turkiye’nin buyume oraninin artmasi reel kura degerlenme yonunde etki etmektedir. Dis Ticaret Hacminde meydana gelen artis TL’yi deger kazandirma yonunde etkilemektedir. Turkiye’ye yurt disindan sermaye girislerinin TL’de degerlenme baskisi yarattigi gorulmektedir. OECD ulkelerinin Turkiye’ye goreli olarak is gucu maliyetlerinin artisi reel kura deger kaybettirmekte, soz konusu ulkelerin rekabet gucunun azalmasina, Turkiye’nin rekabet gucunun ise artisina yol acmaktadir. Analiz sonuclari, son donemde TL reel kurunun denge degerine yakin seviyelerde oldugunu gostermektedir. Makale, kurun denge degerine politika mudahalesi yapilip yapilmamasi konusunu da tartismaya acmaktadir.

Suggested Citation

  • Guzin BAYAR & Selman TOKPUNAR, 2013. "Turk Lirasi Reel Kuru Denge Degerinde Mi?," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 13(4), pages 405-426.
    • Handle: RePEc:ege:journl:v:13:y:2013:i:4:p:405-426
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FMOLS; reel kur; denge; balassa-samuelson etkisi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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