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What can we learn from univariate time series models? The case of sugar production in Mauritius 1879-1987

Author

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  • Lallmahomed, Naguib
  • Taubert, Peter

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to show the validity and limits of univariate time series modeling applied to annual production of sugar in Mauritius form 1879 to 1987. We analyse the series through the main components of long-term growth and stationary dynamics of short-term coupled with the impact of exogenous shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Lallmahomed, Naguib & Taubert, Peter, 1989. "What can we learn from univariate time series models? The case of sugar production in Mauritius 1879-1987," MPRA Paper 40900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40900
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-1310, November.
    2. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    3. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    4. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    5. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    univariate time series modeling; sugar production; Mauritius;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • N57 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Africa; Oceania
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • A23 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - Graduate
    • A2 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics
    • A29 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - Other
    • N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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