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Is Radiative Forcing Cointegrated with Temperature? A Further Examination Using a Structural Time Series Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Balcombe, Kelvin
  • Fraser, Iain
  • Sharma, Abhijit

Abstract

This paper re-examines the relationship between radiative forcing and temperatures from a structural time series modelling perspective. The results confirm that cointegration between radiative forcing and temperatures are consis- tent with the data. However, we produce results for which the cointegration between forcing and temperature data finds less support than previously. A Bayesian approach is used to obtain estimates that better represents the uncertainty regarding this relationship. We show that while a cointegrating relationship represents an acceptable characterisation of the relationship between these variables, another equally acceptable model exists in which there is no cointegration, and the relationship between forcing and temperature is insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Balcombe, Kelvin & Fraser, Iain & Sharma, Abhijit, 2012. "Is Radiative Forcing Cointegrated with Temperature? A Further Examination Using a Structural Time Series Approach," MPRA Paper 39111, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39111
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39111/1/MPRA_paper_39111.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reyer Gerlagh & Bob van der Zwaan, 2006. "Options and Instruments for a Deep Cut in CO2 Emissions: Carbon Dioxide Capture or Renewables, Taxes or Subsidies?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 25-48.
    2. Jan van Heerden & Reyer Gerlagh & James Blignaut & Mark Horridge & Sebastiaan Hess & Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Mabugu, 2006. "Searching for Triple Dividends in South Africa: Fighting CO2 Pollution and Poverty while Promoting Growth," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 113-142.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Radiative forcing; cointegration; structural time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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