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Estimating a monetary policy rule for India

Author

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  • Hutchison, Michael
  • Sengupta, Rajeswari
  • Singh, Nirvikar

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the seemingly discretionary and flexible approach of the Reserve Bank of India can in practice be described by a Taylor-type rule. It estimates an exchange-rate-augmented Taylor rule for India over the period Quarter 1 of 1980 to Quarter 4 of 2008. It investigates monetary policy changes between the pre- and post-liberalization periods in order to capture the potential impact of macroeconomic structural changes on the RBI's monetary policy conduct. Overall, it finds that the output gap seems to matter more to RBI than inflation, there is greater sensitivity to consumer price inflation, exchange rate changes do not constitute an important policy factor, and the post-1998 conduct of monetary policy seems to have changed in the direction of less inertia.

Suggested Citation

  • Hutchison, Michael & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Singh, Nirvikar, 2010. "Estimating a monetary policy rule for India," MPRA Paper 38924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38924
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2005. "Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Market Economies: Issues and Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Lúcio Vinhas Souza (ed.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, pages 205-245, Springer.
    4. Esanov, Akram & Merkl, Christian & Vinhas de Souza, Lucio, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 484-499, September.
    5. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    6. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    7. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258, September.
    8. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ginn, William & Pourroy, Marc, 2022. "The contribution of food subsidy policy to monetary policy in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Utso Pal Mustafi & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2020. "Regime changes in Indias monetary policy and Tenures of RBI governors," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Kumar, Alok, 2023. "Financial market imperfections, informality and government spending multipliers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    4. William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2022. "The Contribution of Food Subsidy Policy to Monetary Policy in India," Working Papers hal-02944209, HAL.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam & Choudhary, Rishabh, 2021. "Inflation Targeting in India: An Interim Assessment," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 77-141.
    6. Sachdeva, Paras & Ahmad, Wasim, 2024. "Fiscal and monetary policy regimes: New evidence from India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Gupta,Poonam - DECOS, 2016. "Capital flows and central banking : the Indian experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7569, The World Bank.
    8. Thanh, Su Dinh & Canh, Nguyen Phuc & Maiti, Moinak, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of unanticipated monetary shocks on stock prices: Emerging market evidence," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 40-55.
    9. Kapur, Muneesh & Behera, Harendra, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in India: A Quarterly Model," MPRA Paper 70631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hutchison, Michael M. & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Singh, Nirvikar, 2013. "Dove or Hawk? Characterizing monetary policy regime switches in India," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 183-202.
    11. Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2012. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for India," IMF Working Papers 2012/118, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reserve Bank of India; Monetary Policy; Taylor Rule; Indian Economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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