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Downward-sloping term structure of lease rates: a puzzle

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  • Seko, Miki
  • Sumita, Kazuto
  • Yoshida, Jiro

Abstract

A model of the term structure of lease rates in a frictionless economy is developed and its predictions are compared with data on residential leases in Japan. The model shows that the initial lease rate for a cancellable lease must be set higher than that for a non-cancellable lease because the former rate will be repeatedly adjusted downward when the market rent decreases. More importantly, the term structure of lease rates is always upward-sloping for cancellable leases. Empirical findings show a sharp contrast with the theory. Fixed-term lease rates are often higher than open-ended long-term lease rates. Moreover, in the fixed-term lease sample, the term structure of lease rates is downward-sloping. The term structure is also heterogeneous by tenant’s income.

Suggested Citation

  • Seko, Miki & Sumita, Kazuto & Yoshida, Jiro, 2012. "Downward-sloping term structure of lease rates: a puzzle," MPRA Paper 37395, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37395
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Iwata, Shinichiro, 2002. "The Japanese Tenant Protection Law and Asymmetric Information on Tenure Length," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 125-151, June.
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    7. Clapham, Eric & Gunnelin, Åke, 2003. "Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 16, Institute for Financial Research.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    lease contracts; term structure; cancellation option; hedonic regression; residential real estate; option premium; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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