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Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Clapham, Eric

    (Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Gunnelin, Åke

    (Swedish Institute for Financial Research)

Abstract

We consider the term structure of lease rates in a general setting where both the interest rate and the short rent are stochastic. Our framework is applicable to any leasing market, but we focus on real estate. We find that the “expectations hypothesis” of lease rates, i.e. that the forward rent is an unbiased estimator of the future short rent, requires similar assumptions as in interest rate theory to hold. To study the magnitude of the bias we parameterize our general framework. The simulations show that different realistic parameter values for risk aversion and interest rate stochastics can generate widely different shapes of the rental term structure, holding the objective rental expectations constant. As a result, an expected increase in rent may very well be consistent with a downward-sloping term structure and vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Clapham, Eric & Gunnelin, Åke, 2003. "Rental Expectations and the Term Structure of Lease Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 16, Institute for Financial Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Miki Seko & Kazuto Sumita & Jiro Yoshida, 2012. "Downward-Sloping Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Puzzle," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2011-042, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    2. Clark, David & Pennington-Cross, Anthony, 2016. "Determinants of industrial property rents in the Chicago metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 34-45.
    3. Maria Trojanek & Marcin Anholcer & Audrius Banaitis & Radoslaw Trojanek, 2018. "A Generalised Model of Ground Lease Pricing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, September.
    4. Jonathan A. Wiley, 2014. "Gross Lease Premiums," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 606-626, September.
    5. Brent Ambrose & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Credit Risk and the Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Reduced Form Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 281-298, October.
    6. Golbeck, Steven & Linetsky, Vadim, 2013. "Asset financing with credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 43-59.
    7. Shaun Bond & Pavlos Loizou & Patrick McAllister, 2008. "Lease Maturity and Initial Rent: Is There a Term Structure for UK Commercial Property Leases?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 451-469, May.
    8. Rajesh, R. & Agariya, Arun Kumar & Rajendran, Chandrasekharan, 2021. "Predicting resilience in retailing using grey theory and moving probability based Markov models," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure of lease rates; Rental expectations; Expectations hypothesis; Lease valuation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General

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