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The SADC region and EPA/EBAI – trade balance analysis

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  • Sukati, Mphumuzi

Abstract

This paper investigates the potential trade balance outcomes of the EPA/EBAI policies in the SADC region using the GTAP7 model and database. The analysis of these policies therefore make conclusion on SADC member states’ changes in trade balance overall, per commodity groups and on overall welfare outcomes as a result of these policies. The study has found that although the EPA/EBAI initiative policies will potentially result in overall welfare gain in the SADC region this welfare gain will only be 6% of the EU27. Analysis of trade balance outcome reveals that the SADC ACP region will suffer a negative trade balance of US$1596.8 million with the EU on the other hand having a positive trade balance of US$105.61 million. Since a positive trade balance is important for sustainable development of nations, these results once again throw into doubt the potential sustainable economic growth benefits of these policies to ACP countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Sukati, Mphumuzi, 2011. "The SADC region and EPA/EBAI – trade balance analysis," MPRA Paper 31992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31992
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    1. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8, October.
    2. Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Andrew McKay, 2005. "Some Simple Analytics of the Trade and Welfare Effects of Economic Partnership Agreements," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 14(3), pages 327-358, September.
    3. Alexander Keck & Roberta Piermartini, 2008. "The Impact of Economic Partnership Agreements in Countries of the Southern African Development Community," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(1), pages 85-130, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Key words: Trade Balance; Welfare; EPA/EBAI Policies; Sustainable Development; Sustainable Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • A13 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Social Values
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

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