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Patterns in U.S. urban growth (1790–2000)

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  • González-Val, Rafael
  • Lanaspa, Luis

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the evolution of the growth of American cities since 1790 in the light of new theories of urban growth. Our null hypothesis for long-term growth is random growth. We obtain evidence supporting random growth against the alternative of mean reversion (convergence) in city sizes using panel unit root tests. We also examine mobility within the distribution to try to extract growth patterns different from the general unit root trend detected. We find evidence of high mobility when we model growth as a first-order Markov process. Finally, using a cluster procedure we find strong evidence in favour of conditional convergence in city growth rates within convergence clubs, which we can interpret as “local” mean-reverting behaviours. Both the high mobility and the results of the clustering analysis seem to indicate a sequential city growth pattern.

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  • González-Val, Rafael & Lanaspa, Luis, 2011. "Patterns in U.S. urban growth (1790–2000)," MPRA Paper 31006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31006
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    3. Alvarez-Dias, Marcos & D'Hombres, Beatrice & Ghisetti, Claudia & Pontarollo, Nicola & Dijkstra, Lewis, 2018. "The Determinants of Population Growth: Literature review and empirical analysis," Working Papers 2018-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    4. , Aisdl, 2021. "Factors Determining the Development of Minimum Comparable Areas and Spatial Interaction," OSF Preprints 9e7xz, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    city size; urban growth; random growth; sequential city growth; transition matrices; club convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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