Nükleer Enerji Sahibi Olma Kararını Etkileyen Faktörler ve Türkiye için Tahminler[Factors that Affect the Decision of Having Nuclear Energy and Predictions for Turkey]

Using data for 67 countries for the period 1980-2005, we analyze to what extent do the decisions of having nuclear power and the share of nuclear energy in total energy use depend on economic, politic, social and geographic factors. Our econometric model that takes the selectivity problems of the sample into consideration reveals a positive relationship between per capita real income and the probability of selecting to have nuclear power. This relationship, however, weakens as the level of income further increases. Probability of selecting nuclear energy initially rises with income, but when the income increases beyond $31800, it starts to decline. We also find that, the probability of opting for nuclear power continuously increases for Turkey starting from 1990s and becomes approximately %45-%46 by 2007. When we use the new GDP series of Turkish Statistical Institute in our estimations, the estimated probability of selection of nuclear energy for Turkey increases to approximately %60. Finally, we find that if Turkey had a nuclear power generator today, the share of nuclear energy in total energy would be approximately %14-%16.