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بررسي عوامل موثر بر قيمت طلا و ارايه مدل پيش بيني قيمت آن به كمك شبكه هاي عصبي فازي
[A study on the factors affecting gold price and a neuro-fuzzy model of forcast]

Author

Listed:
  • Sarfaraz, Leyla
  • Afsar, Amir

Abstract

Throughout the history man has considered gold as a precious metal and its forcast has always been important. Traditional methods of forcast, e.g.Regresion, ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, and methods of this kind have been applied. Only recently Artificial Intelligence, Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic have been proposed as forcast models. In this paper after considering gold role in the international finance, its Demand and supply, and the relationship between gold and Dollar, factors affecting the gold price fluctuations are considered; then a Neuro-Fuzzy approach based on the Takagy-Sogno Moel is employed to forcast gold price. The results obtained by this method are compared with Regression Analysis, which show that a Neuro-Fuzzy yields a better and more promissing forcast.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarfaraz, Leyla & Afsar, Amir, 2005. "بررسي عوامل موثر بر قيمت طلا و ارايه مدل پيش بيني قيمت آن به كمك شبكه هاي عصبي فازي [A study on the factors affecting gold price and a neuro-fuzzy model of forcast]," MPRA Paper 2855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2855
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qi, Min, 2001. "Predicting US recessions with leading indicators via neural network models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 383-401.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Neural Networks; Fuzzy Logic; Neuro-Fuzzy; Artificial Intelligence; gold price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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