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Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Time-Varying Copula: Evidence from the Americas

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Listed:
  • Ozun, Alper
  • Cifter, Atilla

Abstract

Model risk in the estimation of value-at-risk is a challenging threat for the success of any financial investments. The degree of the model risk increases when the estimation process is constructed with a portfolio in the emerging markets. The proper model should both provide flexible joint distributions by splitting the marginality from the dependencies among the financial assets within the portfolio and also capture the non-linear behaviours and extremes in the returns arising from the special features of the emerging markets. In this paper, we use time-varying copula to estimate the value-at-risk of the portfolio comprised of the Bovespa and the IPC Mexico in equal and constant weights. The performance comparison of the copula model to the EWMA portfolio model made by the Christoffersen back-test shows that the copula model captures the extremes most successfully. The copula model, by estimating the portfolio value-at-risk with the least violation number in the back-tests, provides the investors to allocate the minimum regulatory capital requirement in accordance with the Basel II Accord.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozun, Alper & Cifter, Atilla, 2007. "Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Time-Varying Copula: Evidence from the Americas," MPRA Paper 2711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2711
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2711/1/MPRA_paper_2711.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin Dowd, 2004. "FOMC Forecasts of Macroeconomic Risks," Occasional Papers 12, Industrial Economics Division, revised 10 Jan 2004.
    2. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    3. Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2003. "Nonparametric pricing of multivariate contingent claims," Staff Reports 162, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
    5. Embrechts, Paul & Hoing, Andrea & Puccetti, Giovanni, 2005. "Worst VaR scenarios," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 115-134, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruijun Bu & Ludovic Giet & Kaddour Hadri & Michel Lubrano, 2009. "Modeling Multivariate Interest Rates using Time-Varying Copulas and Reducible Stochastic Differential Equations," Working Papers halshs-00408014, HAL.
    2. Jekaterina Kuzmina & Gaida Pettere & Irina Voronova, 2009. "Conditional Risk Measure Modeling For Latvian Insurance Companies," Perspectives of Innovation in Economics and Business (PIEB), Prague Development Center, vol. 3(3), pages 59-61.
    3. Berger, Theo, 2016. "On the isolated impact of copulas on risk measurement: Asimulation study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 475-481.
    4. Berger, Theo, 2015. "A wavelet based approach to measure and manage contagion at different time scales," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 338-350.
    5. Kuzmina, Jekaterina & Pettere, Gaida & Voronova, Irina, 2009. "Conditional risk measure modeling for Latvian insurance companies," Perspectives of Innovations, Economics and Business (PIEB), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 3, pages 1-3, December.
    6. Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Nguyen, Cuong C., 2012. "Diversification evidence from international equity markets using extreme values and stochastic copulas," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 622-646.
    7. Ruijun Bu & Ludovic Giet & Kaddour Hadri & Michel Lubrano, 2009. "Modelling Multivariate Interest Rates using Time-Varying Copulas and Reducible Non-Linear Stochastic Differential," Economics Working Papers 09-02, Queen's Management School, Queen's University Belfast.
    8. Berger, T. & Missong, M., 2014. "Financial crisis, Value-at-Risk forecasts and the puzzle of dependency modeling," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-38.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying Copula; portfolio value-at-risk; Latin American equity markets; portfolio GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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