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A Comparison Study of Copula Models for Europea Financial Index Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Paula V. Tofoli
  • Flavio A. Ziegelmann
  • Osvaldo Candido

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to modeling dependence between international financial returns over time, combining time-varying copulas and the Markov switching model. We apply these copula models and also those proposed by Patton (2006), Jondeau and Rockinger (2006) and Silva Filho, Ziegelmann, and Dueker (2012) to the return data of the FTSE-100, CAC-40 and DAX indexes. We are particularly interested in comparing these methodologies in terms of the resulting dynamics of dependence and the models¡¯ abilities to forecast possible capital losses. Because risks related to extreme events are important for risk management, we compare and select the models based on VaR forecasts. Interestingly, all the models identify a long period of high dependence between the returns beginning in 2007, when the subprime crisis was evolving. Surprisingly, the elliptical copulas perform best in forecasting the extreme quantiles of the portfolios returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Paula V. Tofoli & Flavio A. Ziegelmann & Osvaldo Candido, 2017. "A Comparison Study of Copula Models for Europea Financial Index Returns," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(10), pages 155-178, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:10:p:155-178
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    copula-GARCH; IFM method; Markov switching model; time-varying copulas; value at risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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