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A Non-parametric Approach to Incorporating Incomplete Workouts Into Loss Given Default Estimates

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  • Rapisarda, Grazia
  • Echeverry, David

Abstract

When estimating Loss Given Default (LGD) parameters using a workout approach, i.e. discounting cash flows over the workout period, the problem arises of how to take into account partial recoveries from incomplete work-outs. The simplest approach would see LGD based on complete recovery profiles only. Whilst simple, this approach may lead to data selection bias, which may be at the basis of regulatory guidance requiring the assessment of the relevance of incomplete workouts to LGD estimation. Despite its importance, few academic contributions have covered this topic. We enhance this literature by developing a non-parametric estimator that -under certain distributional assumptions on the recovery profiles- aggregates complete and incomplete workout data to produce unbiased and more efficient estimates of mean LGD than those obtained from the estimator based on resolved cases only. Our estimator is appropriate in LGD estimation for wholesale portfolios, where the exposure-weighted LGD estimators available in the literature would not be applicable under Basel II regulatory guidance.

Suggested Citation

  • Rapisarda, Grazia & Echeverry, David, 2010. "A Non-parametric Approach to Incorporating Incomplete Workouts Into Loss Given Default Estimates," MPRA Paper 26797, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26797
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dhaene, J. & Denuit, M. & Goovaerts, M. J. & Kaas, R. & Vyncke, D., 2002. "The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-33, August.
    2. Fuller, Russell J. & Kim, Sang-Hoon, 1980. "Inter-Temporal Correlation of Cash Flows and the Risk of Multi-Period Investment Projects," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 1149-1162, December.
    3. Dhaene, J. & Denuit, M. & Goovaerts, M. J. & Kaas, R. & Vyncke, D., 2002. "The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 133-161, October.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:4:p:909-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dermine, J. & de Carvalho, C. Neto, 2006. "Bank loan losses-given-default: A case study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1219-1243, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; bank loans; loss-given-default; LGD; incomplete observations; mortality curves;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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