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The unbiasedness and efficiency tests of the rational expectations hypothesis

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  • Bilgili, Faik

Abstract

This study examines the direct tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH). Pesando (1975) employs the Livingston survey data of business economists and reaches the rejection of rationality and consistency but not rejection of the efficiency. Analyzing the same data, Carlson (1977) rejects these three hypotheses that Pesando tests when he uses expectations on CPI, but doesn’t reject hypotheses as he uses expectations on WPI. Turnovsky (1980) tests the unbiasedness property of the REH using Livingston data and finds different results for the different periods of data. Friedman (1980) applies the unbiasedness and efficiency tests using data of The Goldsmith-Nagan Bond and Money Market Letter and reaches mixed results for the REH. Ball and Croushore (1995) use the several survey results and univariate forecasting models. Their results provide a strong rejection of the REH.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilgili, Faik, 2001. "The unbiasedness and efficiency tests of the rational expectations hypothesis," MPRA Paper 24114, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24114
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ball, Laurence & Croushore, Dean, 2003. "Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 473-484, August.
    2. Figlewski, Stephen & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "The Formation of Inflationary Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 1-10, February.
    3. Pesando, James E, 1975. "A Note on the Rationality of the Livingston Price Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 849-858, August.
    4. Pearce, Douglas K, 1979. "Comparing Survey and Rational Measures of Expected Inflation: Forecast Performance and Interest Rate Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 447-456, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Terézia Vančová, 2019. "The Excess Smoothness and Sensitivity of Consumption in the V4 Countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(6), pages 1653-1663.
    2. Bilgili, Faik, 2006. "Random walk, excess smoothness or excess sensitivity? Evidence from literature and an application for Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 24086, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2010.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rational expectations hypothesis; expectations; unbiasedness; efficiency; Box-Jenkins forecasting model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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