IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/22763.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in selected emerging countries: Multivariate VAR analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kalirajan, Kaliappa
  • Miankhel, Adil
  • Thangavelu, Shandre

Abstract

The paper adopts a time series framework of the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to study the dynamic relationship between export, FDI and GDP for six emerging countries of Chile, India, Mexico, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. Stationarity of the series with structural breaks is also examined in the model. Given that these countries are at different stages of growth, we will be able to identify the impact of FDI and export on economic growth at different stages of growth. The results suggest that in South Asia, there is evidence of an export led growth hypothesis. However, in the long run, we identify GDP growth as the common factor that drives growth in other variables such as exports in the case of Pakistan and FDI in the case of India. The Latin American countries of Mexico and Chile show a different relationship in the short run but in the long run, exports affect the growth of FDI and output. In the case of East Asian countries, we find bi-directional long run relationship among exports, FDI and GDP in Malaysia, while we find a long run uni-directional relationship from GDP to export in case of Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalirajan, Kaliappa & Miankhel, Adil & Thangavelu, Shandre, 2009. "Foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in selected emerging countries: Multivariate VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 22763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22763
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22763/1/MPRA_paper_22763.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    2. Easterly, William & King, Robert G & Levine, Ross & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Policy, Technology Adoption and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    6. Liu, Xiaming & Wang, Chengang & Wei, Yingqi, 2001. "Causal links between foreign direct investment and trade in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 190-202.
    7. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
    8. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
    9. Shiva S. Makki & Agapi Somwaru, 2004. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(3), pages 795-801.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Verónica Cañal-Fernández & Julio Tascón Fernández, 2018. "The long run impact of foreign direct investment, exports, imports and GDP: evidence for Spain from an ARDL approach," Working Papers 0128, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    2. Arif, Asma & An, Pengli & Qi, Yajie & Li, Huajiao & An, Haizhong & Hussain, Mujahid & Wang, Yanli, 2021. "The influence factors of the national roles in the FDI network: A combined methods of complex networks and Panel Data Analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 563(C).
    3. Sheng, Yu & Wu, Yanrui & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhang, Dandan, 2015. "Energy trade efficiency and its determinants: A Malmquist index approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 306-314.
    4. Chakraborty, Debashis & Mukherjee, Jaydeep & Lee, Jaewook, 2016. "Do FDI Inflows influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis on India over 1991-2016," MPRA Paper 74851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kunofiwa Tsaurai, 2017. "Savings Mobilization and Financial Development during the Multicurrency Regime Period in Zimbabwe," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(3), pages 152-162.
    6. repec:era:chaptr:2013-rpr-29-06 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chakraborty Debashis & Mukherjee Jaydeep & Lee Jaewook, 2017. "FDI Inflows Influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis for India over 1991-2016 : Causality Analysis for India Over 1991–2016," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-10, September.
    8. Haider Mahmood & Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb, 2018. "Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Oil Price Nexus in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 147-151.
    9. Sujan Chandra Paul & Md Harun Or Rosid & Zhao Xuefeng & Mohammad Rakibul Islam, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Cross-Country FDI Flows: A Comparative Analysis through the Driscoll–Kraay, 2SLS and GMM Models," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(2), pages 129-140, February.
    10. Mohammed Ershad Hussain & Mahfuzul Haque, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Bangladesh," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, April.
    11. Baher Mohamed Atlam & Ahmed Ashour Soltan & Noha Mohey Mohamed, 2017. "The Impact of National Private Investment on Manufacturing in Egypt," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 192-200.
    12. Pankaj SINHA & Sushant GUPTA & Nakul RANDEV, 2011. "Modeling & Forecasting Of Macro-Economic Variables Of India: Before, During & After Recession," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 43-60.
    13. Yu SHENG & Yanrui WU & Xunpeng SHI & Dandan ZHANG, 2014. "Markket Integration and Energy Trade Efficiency: An Application of Malmqvist Index to Analyse Multi-Product Trade," Working Papers DP-2014-20, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    14. Hassan Sallahuddin, 2018. "Fdi Oriented Exports And Role Of Free Industrial Zones In Malaysia," Post-Print hal-03455842, HAL.
    15. Khan, Shiraz & Mehboob, Farhan, 2014. "Impact of FDI on GDP: An Analysis of Global Economy on Production Function," MPRA Paper 55352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Syed Imran Ali Meerza, 2012. "Causal links between trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth for Bangladesh," SDSU Working Papers in Progress 12012, South Dakota State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Anil K. Lal, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness And Gdp In China, India And Mexico," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(05), pages 1059-1076, December.
    18. Sergio Castello & Anindya Biswas, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Long-term Economic Growth in Alabama: A Co-integration Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 86-94, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alvaro Pereira & João Jalles & Martin Andresen, 2012. "Structural change and foreign direct investment: globalization and regional economic integration," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 11(1), pages 35-82, April.
    2. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    3. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Mohammad, Mafizur Rahman & Abdul, Farooq, 2012. "Financial Development, International Trade and Economic Growth in Australia:New Evidence from Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 42023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2012.
    4. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    5. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    6. Hian Teck HOON & Frank S T Hsiao & Mei-Chu Wang Hsiao, 2020. "FDI, Exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia — Panel Data versus Time-Series Causality Analyses," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Development Strategies of Open Economies Cases from Emerging East and Southeast Asia, chapter 4, pages 81-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan, 2016. "Energy use, international trade and economic growth nexus in Australia: New evidence from an extended growth model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 806-816.
    8. Antonio E. Noriega & Araceli Ramírez-Zamora, 1999. "Unit roots and multiple structural breaks in real output," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 14(2), pages 163-188.
    9. Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2002. "Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test. An application to the rate of unemployment," Working Papers in Economics 79, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    10. Celia Melguizo, 2017. "An analysis of Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 59-90, February.
    11. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    12. Hettihewa, Samanthala & Saha, Shrabani & Zhang, Hanxiong, 2018. "Does an aging population influence stock markets? Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 142-158.
    13. Hicham AYAD, 2019. "Co-integration with regime shift between government expenditure and poverty reduction in Algeria," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 205-216, Summer.
    14. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    15. Monojit Chatterji & Homagni Choudhury, 2010. "The Changing Inter-Industry Wage Structure of the Organised Manufacturing Sector in India, 1973-74 to 2003-04," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 244, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    16. Jun, Sangjoon, 2015. "The Nexus between FDI and Growth in the SAARC Member Countries," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 19(1), pages 39-70, March.
    17. Debashis Chakraborty & Jaydeep Mukherjee & Tanaya Sinha, 2012. "Is there any Long-run Relationship between India’s Current and Capital Account Balance? A Time Series Analysis," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(3), pages 433-447, October.
    18. Samia Nasreen & Sofia Anwar, 2020. "Financial Stability And The Role Of Economic And Financial Integration In South Asia: Evidence From Time-Series Data," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 303-333, March.
    19. Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara, 2010. "The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 591-603, May.
    20. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Ben Khediri, Karim, 2016. "Financial development and environmental quality in UAE: Cointegration with structural breaks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1322-1335.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; Exports; Multivariate VAR; Pakistan; India; Malaysia; Thailand; Chile; Mexico.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22763. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.