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Foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in selected emerging countries: Multivariate VAR analysis

Author

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  • Kalirajan, Kaliappa
  • Miankhel, Adil
  • Thangavelu, Shandre

Abstract

The paper adopts a time series framework of the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to study the dynamic relationship between export, FDI and GDP for six emerging countries of Chile, India, Mexico, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. Stationarity of the series with structural breaks is also examined in the model. Given that these countries are at different stages of growth, we will be able to identify the impact of FDI and export on economic growth at different stages of growth. The results suggest that in South Asia, there is evidence of an export led growth hypothesis. However, in the long run, we identify GDP growth as the common factor that drives growth in other variables such as exports in the case of Pakistan and FDI in the case of India. The Latin American countries of Mexico and Chile show a different relationship in the short run but in the long run, exports affect the growth of FDI and output. In the case of East Asian countries, we find bi-directional long run relationship among exports, FDI and GDP in Malaysia, while we find a long run uni-directional relationship from GDP to export in case of Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalirajan, Kaliappa & Miankhel, Adil & Thangavelu, Shandre, 2009. "Foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in selected emerging countries: Multivariate VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 22763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22763
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Arif, Asma & An, Pengli & Qi, Yajie & Li, Huajiao & An, Haizhong & Hussain, Mujahid & Wang, Yanli, 2021. "The influence factors of the national roles in the FDI network: A combined methods of complex networks and Panel Data Analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 563(C).
    3. Sheng, Yu & Wu, Yanrui & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhang, Dandan, 2015. "Energy trade efficiency and its determinants: A Malmquist index approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 306-314.
    4. Chakraborty, Debashis & Mukherjee, Jaydeep & Lee, Jaewook, 2016. "Do FDI Inflows influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis on India over 1991-2016," MPRA Paper 74851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kunofiwa Tsaurai, 2017. "Savings Mobilization and Financial Development during the Multicurrency Regime Period in Zimbabwe," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(3), pages 152-162.
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    7. Chakraborty Debashis & Mukherjee Jaydeep & Lee Jaewook, 2017. "FDI Inflows Influence Merchandise Exports? Causality Analysis for India over 1991-2016 : Causality Analysis for India Over 1991–2016," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-10, September.
    8. Haider Mahmood & Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb, 2018. "Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Oil Price Nexus in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 147-151.
    9. Sujan Chandra Paul & Md Harun Or Rosid & Zhao Xuefeng & Mohammad Rakibul Islam, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Cross-Country FDI Flows: A Comparative Analysis through the Driscoll–Kraay, 2SLS and GMM Models," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(2), pages 129-140, February.
    10. Mohammed Ershad Hussain & Mahfuzul Haque, 2016. "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Bangladesh," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, April.
    11. Baher Mohamed Atlam & Ahmed Ashour Soltan & Noha Mohey Mohamed, 2017. "The Impact of National Private Investment on Manufacturing in Egypt," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 192-200.
    12. Pankaj SINHA & Sushant GUPTA & Nakul RANDEV, 2011. "Modeling & Forecasting Of Macro-Economic Variables Of India: Before, During & After Recession," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 6(1(15)/ Sp), pages 43-60.
    13. Yu SHENG & Yanrui WU & Xunpeng SHI & Dandan ZHANG, 2014. "Markket Integration and Energy Trade Efficiency: An Application of Malmqvist Index to Analyse Multi-Product Trade," Working Papers DP-2014-20, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    14. Hassan Sallahuddin, 2018. "Fdi Oriented Exports And Role Of Free Industrial Zones In Malaysia," Post-Print hal-03455842, HAL.
    15. Khan, Shiraz & Mehboob, Farhan, 2014. "Impact of FDI on GDP: An Analysis of Global Economy on Production Function," MPRA Paper 55352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Syed Imran Ali Meerza, 2012. "Causal links between trade, foreign direct investment and economic growth for Bangladesh," SDSU Working Papers in Progress 12012, South Dakota State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Anil K. Lal, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness And Gdp In China, India And Mexico," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(05), pages 1059-1076, December.
    18. Sergio Castello & Anindya Biswas, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Long-term Economic Growth in Alabama: A Co-integration Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 86-94, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; Exports; Multivariate VAR; Pakistan; India; Malaysia; Thailand; Chile; Mexico.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

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