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Modeling share prices of banks and bankrupts

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  • Kitov, Ivan

Abstract

Share prices of financial companies from the S&P 500 list have been modeled by a linear function of consumer price indices in the USA. The Johansen and Engle-Granger tests for cointegration both demonstrated the presence of an equilibrium long-term relation between observed and predicted time series. Econometrically, the pricing concept is valid. For several companies, share prices are defined only by CPI readings in the past. Therefore, our empirical pricing model is a deterministic one. For a few companies, including Lehman Brothers, AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, negative share prices could be foreseen in May-September 2008. One might interpret the negative share prices as a sign of approaching bankruptcies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitov, Ivan, 2010. "Modeling share prices of banks and bankrupts," MPRA Paper 21369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21369
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil stock price," MPRA Paper 15334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "A fair price for motor fuel in the United States," MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    5. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Sustainable trends in producer price indices," MPRA Paper 15194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ivan O. Kitov, 2009. "Does economics need a scientific revolution?," Papers 0904.0729, arXiv.org.
    7. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Kitov, Ivan, 2014. "A two-year revision: cross comparison and modeling of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Franklin Resources," MPRA Paper 54696, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    share price; modeling; CPI; prediction; the USA; bankruptcy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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