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Sustainable trends in producer price indices

Author

Listed:
  • Kitov, Ivan
  • Kitov, Oleg

Abstract

Previously, linear trends were revealed in the differences between the headline CPI and the price indices for various subcategories of the CPI in the United States. These trends can be continuous, as observed with the price index for medical care, or piecewise with turning points between trends with opposite signs. Similar features are found for the PPI and its components. The presence of sustainable trends in the differences allows prediction of prices for various commodities at time horizons of several years. In addition, it is possible to time the start of transition to the next trend. Accordingly, the trends reduce the uncertainty in forecasting prices for major commodities and also for their small components. The usage of trends in the PPI could bring substantial benefits to producers (planning) and stock market participants (timely investment).

Suggested Citation

  • Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Sustainable trends in producer price indices," MPRA Paper 15194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15194
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15194/1/MPRA_paper_15194.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2008. "Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ).
    2. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "A fair price for motor fuel in the United States," MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Apples and oranges: relative growth rate of consumer price indices," MPRA Paper 13587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The price of steel and iron will be falling, but not long
      by Ivan Kitov in Economics as Classical Mechanics on 2016-05-19 22:00:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil stock price," MPRA Paper 15334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ivan KITOV, 2010. "Modeling Share Prices Of Banks And Bankrupts," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 59-85.
    3. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Predicting share price of energy companies: June-September 2009," MPRA Paper 15863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "PPI of durable and nondurable goods: 1985-2016," MPRA Paper 15874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2010. "Crude oil and motor fuel: Fair price revisited," Papers 1005.0051, arXiv.org.
    6. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2012. "Sustainable trends and periodicity in consumer price indices indicate that the era of low energy prices is approaching," MPRA Paper 43392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ivan Kitov, 2012. "ConocoPhillips' share price model revisited," Papers 1204.5171, arXiv.org.
    8. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting gold ores price," MPRA Paper 15873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting the price index for jewelry and jewelry products: 2009 to 2016," MPRA Paper 15875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Modelling of selected S&P 500 share prices," MPRA Paper 15862, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    1. Ivan O. Kitov & Oleg I. Kitov, 2010. "Crude oil and motor fuel: Fair price revisited," Papers 1005.0051, arXiv.org.
    2. Ivan Kitov, 2012. "ConocoPhillips' share price model revisited," Papers 1204.5171, arXiv.org.
    3. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil stock price," MPRA Paper 15334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "PPI of durable and nondurable goods: 1985-2016," MPRA Paper 15874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kitov, Ivan, 2009. "Predicting gold ores price," MPRA Paper 15873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Modelling of selected S&P 500 share prices," MPRA Paper 15862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    9. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "Predicting share price of energy companies: June-September 2009," MPRA Paper 15863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ivan KITOV, 2010. "Modeling Share Prices Of Banks And Bankrupts," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 59-85.
    11. Kitov, Ivan, 2015. "Modeling the price of crude oil and motor fuel: a five-year revision," MPRA Paper 62338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ivan O. KITOV & Oleg I. KITOV & Svetlana A. DOLINSKAYA, 2008. "Comprehensive Macro Ï¿½ Model For The Us Economy," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(4(6)_Wint).
    13. Ivan Kitov, 2012. "Cross comparison and modelling of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Franklin Resources," Papers 1212.1661, arXiv.org.
    14. Kitov, Ivan, 2014. "A two-year revision: cross comparison and modeling of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Franklin Resources," MPRA Paper 54696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2012. "Sustainable trends and periodicity in consumer price indices indicate that the era of low energy prices is approaching," MPRA Paper 43392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg, 2009. "A fair price for motor fuel in the United States," MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kitov, Ivan & Kitov, Oleg & Dolinskaya, Svetlana, 2008. "Comprehensive macro-model for the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 9808, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    PPI; CPI; US; prediction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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