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The role of Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Further evidence from an Emerging Market

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  • Saltoglu, Burak
  • Yazgan, Ege

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the interrelations among Turkish interest rates with different maturities by using a regime switching Vector Error Correction (VECM) model. We find a long run equilibrium relationship among interest rates with various maturities. Furthermore we conclude that term structure dynamics exhibit significant nonlinearity. Forecasting experiment also reveals that the nonlinear term structure models do fare better than other linear specifications. However, we cannot conclude that interest rate adjustments are made in an asymmetric way in the long run equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Saltoglu, Burak & Yazgan, Ege, 2009. "The role of Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Further evidence from an Emerging Market," MPRA Paper 18741, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18741
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    Cited by:

    1. Kannan S. Thuraisamy, 2015. "Volatility Dynamics in the Term Structure of Latin American Sovereign International Bonds," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(5), pages 859-866, September.
    2. Kang, Bo Soo & Ryu, Doojin & Ryu, Doowon, 2014. "Phase-shifting behaviour revisited: An alternative measure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 167-173.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term Structure of Interest Rates; Regime Switching; Forecasting; Foreacast Evaluation; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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