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A Century of Purchasing Power Parity Confirmed: The Role of Nonlinearity

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  • Kim, Hyeongwoo
  • Moh, Young-Kyu

Abstract

Taylor (2002) claims that Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) has held over the 20th century based on strong evidence of stationarity for century-long real exchange rates for 20 countries. Lopez et al. (2005), however, found much weaker evidence of PPP with alternative lag selection methods. We reevaluate Taylor’s claim by implementing a recently developed nonlinear unit root test by Park and Shintani (2005). We find strong evidence of nonlinear mean-reversion in real exchange rates that confirms Taylor’s claim. We also find a possible misspecification problem in using the ESTAR model that may not be detected with Taylor-approximation based tests.

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  • Kim, Hyeongwoo & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2009. "A Century of Purchasing Power Parity Confirmed: The Role of Nonlinearity," MPRA Paper 17488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:17488
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    1. Frederic Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Tests for Unit-Root versus Threshold Specification With an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 382-395, October.
    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
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    4. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    5. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    6. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Ka Ming & Durmaz, Nazif & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Stern, Michael L., 2012. "Hysteresis vs. natural rate of US unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 428-434.
    2. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2015. "A nonparametric study of real exchange rate persistence over a century," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 406-418.
    3. Robert Kelm, 2017. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle and Imperfect Knowledge: The Case of the Polish Zloty," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.
    4. Frederick Wallace, 2013. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(4), pages 779-802, December.
    5. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Kim, Jintae, 2018. "London calling: Nonlinear mean reversion across national stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 265-277.
    6. Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Nonlinear adjustment effects in the purchasing power parity," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 60(2), pages 14-38.
    7. Hyeongwoo Kim & Young-Kyu Moh, 2012. "The Yen Real Exchange Rate May Not be Stationary After All: New Evidence from Non-linear Unit-Root Tests," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 18(4), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Suvankulov, Farrukh & Su, Yongyang & Chau, Frankie, 2012. "Some cautions on the use of nonlinear panel unit root tests: Evidence from a modified series-specific non-linear panel unit-root test," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 810-816.
    9. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2015. "Measuring the speed of convergence of stock prices: A nonparametric and nonlinear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 227-241.
    10. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Marcel Kohler, 2016. "On the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence from Energy Exporting Sub-Saharan Africa Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 71-82, July-Sept.
    11. Dinçer Afat & Michael Frömmel, 2020. "An Alternative Version of Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 511-517, October.
    12. Cheng, Ka Ming, 2022. "Doubts on natural rate of unemployment: Evidence and policy implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 230-239.
    13. Phiri, Andrew, 2014. "Purchasing power parity (PPP) between South Africa and her main currency exchange partners: Evidence from asymmetric unit root tests and threshold co-integration analysis," MPRA Paper 53659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsieh, Chun-Kuei, 2021. "Facing up to the polysemy of purchasing power parity: New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 247-265.
    15. Hendriks, Johannes Jurgens & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2022. "Testing for the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis between South Africa and its main trading partners: application of the quantile approach," MPRA Paper 112915, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Purchasing Power Parity; Transition Autoregressive Process; inf-t Unit Root Test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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