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Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Substitution and Monetary Policy in Nigeria

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  • Yinusa, D. Olalekan

Abstract

This study analyzes the implications of currency substitution and exchange rate volatility for monetary policy in Nigeria. It adopts the unrestricted portfolio balance model of currency substitution, incorporating exchange rate volatility within the framework of the Vector Error Correction (VEC) technique. Results from both impulse response and the forecast error variance decomposition functions suggest that exchange rate volatility and currency substitution responds to monetary policy with some lags meaning that monetary policy may be effective in dampening exchange rate volatility and currency substitution in the medium horizon but might not be effective in the short horizon. The study concludes that currency substitution was not an instant reaction to the slightest policy mistake rather; it was fallout from prolonged period of macroeconomic instability. The major sources of this instability in Nigeria were untamed fiscal deficits leading to high domestic inflation, real parallel market exchange rate volatility, and speculative business activities of market agents in the foreign exchange rate market and poor/inconsistent or uncertainty in public policies. In terms of policy choice, our result favours exchange rate based monetary policy as against interest based monetary policy for stabilization in dollarized economies like Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Yinusa, D. Olalekan, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Substitution and Monetary Policy in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 16255, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16255
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Süleyman Hilmi KAL, 2019. "2003-2018 Dönemi Türk Ekonomisinde Dolarizasyon, Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketleri ve Kur Oynaklığı İlişkisi," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(2), pages 357-377, December.
    2. Yinusa, D. Olalekan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Deposit Dollarization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Data," MPRA Paper 16259, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    3. Abu Bakarr TARAWALIE & Amadu JALLOH, 2020. "Dollarization in Sierra Leone: Evidence and Some Policy Options," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 160-168, July.
    4. Christelle Meniago & Joel Hinaunye Eita, 2017. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Deter Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 62-69.
    5. Ojewumi, Sunday Johnson & Akinlo, Anthony Enisan, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth and Environmental Quality in SubSaharan Africa: A Dynamic Model Analysis," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 5(01), January.
    6. Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Asongu, Simplice A., 2018. "Extending the determinants of dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of easy access to foreign exchange earnings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 106-120.
    7. Oyelami Lukman Oyeyinka & Ajeigbe Omowumi M., 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Sectoral Analysis of Non-Oil Export in Nigeria," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 24(1), pages 21-36.
    8. Auyo Musa, Abdulhamid & Rafindadi Sanusi, Aliyu, 2021. "Relationship Between Interest Rate And Exchange Rate In Nigeria: Does The Banking Sector Debt Level Matter?," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 8(2), pages 89-103, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand for money; Exchange Rate Volatility; Currency Substitution; Monetary Policy and Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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