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Exchange Rate Volatility and the Extent of Currency Substitution in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Yinusa D. O.

    (Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.)

  • A. E. Akinlo

    (Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.)

Abstract

This study tests for the existence of currency substitution and attempts to gauge its magnitude in Nigeria. The analysis was based on a multi-perspective unrestricted portfolio balance model. The stock of foreign currency deposits in Nigeria and the ratio of deposits denominated in foreign currency in the domestic banking system to deposits denominated in the domestic currency were modelled. The study revealed the presence of currency substitution in the domestic banking system in Nigeria. A major factor driving this process was exchange rate volatility especially real parallel market exchange rate volatility. Also, the study demonstrates that currency substitution in Nigeria was low during the period under review and as such classified Nigeria as moderately dollarized economy. Subsequently, alternative policy options for curtailing currency substitution in Nigeria were explored. The study concludes that currency substitution is an element of Nigerians' behaviour concerning wealth allocation and as such macroeconomic policies that ensure long periods of low inflation and exchange rate stability become the most powerful policy option that could help stabilize or reduce currency substitution. Also very paramount are the development of domestic financial markets with relevant infrastructural facilities and the development of new financial instruments, which will serve as alternatives to holding money in the domestic economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yinusa D. O. & A. E. Akinlo, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Extent of Currency Substitution in Nigeria," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 161-181, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:43:y:2008:i:2:p:161-181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Süleyman Hilmi KAL, 2019. "2003-2018 Dönemi Türk Ekonomisinde Dolarizasyon, Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Hareketleri ve Kur Oynaklığı İlişkisi," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(2), pages 357-377, December.
    2. Yinusa, D. Olalekan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Deposit Dollarization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Data," MPRA Paper 16259, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    3. Abu Bakarr TARAWALIE & Amadu JALLOH, 2020. "Dollarization in Sierra Leone: Evidence and Some Policy Options," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 160-168, July.
    4. Christelle Meniago & Joel Hinaunye Eita, 2017. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Deter Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 62-69.
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    6. Obinwata, Bede & OWURU, Joel & FARAYIBI, Adesoji, 2016. "Exchange Rate Trends and Export Performance in Nigeria: A Descriptive Approach," MPRA Paper 75526, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Dec 2016.
    7. Maria Semenova & Andrey Shapkin, 2019. "Currency Shifts as a Market Discipline Device: The Case of the Russian Market for Personal Deposits," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(10), pages 2149-2163, August.
    8. Ojewumi, Sunday Johnson & Akinlo, Anthony Enisan, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth and Environmental Quality in SubSaharan Africa: A Dynamic Model Analysis," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 5(1), January.
    9. Matousek, Roman & Solomon, Helen, 2018. "Bank lending channel and monetary policy in Nigeria," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 467-474.
    10. Raheem, Ibrahim Dolapo & Asongu, Simplice A., 2018. "Extending the determinants of dollarization in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of easy access to foreign exchange earnings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 106-120.
    11. Hisao Kumamoto & Masao Kumamoto, 2014. "Does Currency Substitution Affect Exchange Rate Volatility?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 698-704.
    12. Mr. Marco Airaudo & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/055, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Oyelami Lukman Oyeyinka & Ajeigbe Omowumi M., 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Sectoral Analysis of Non-Oil Export in Nigeria," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 24(1), pages 21-36.
    14. Anthony E. Akinlo, 2022. "How Does Corruption Affect Currency Substitution? Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 7(2), pages 221-242, July.
    15. Angela Ifeanyi Ujunwa & Augustine Ujunwa & Emmanuel Onah & Nnenna Georgina Nwonye & Onyedikachi David Chukwunwike, 2021. "Extending the determinants of currency substitution in Nigeria: Any role for financial innovation?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 590-607, December.
    16. Auyo Musa, Abdulhamid & Rafindadi Sanusi, Aliyu, 2021. "Relationship Between Interest Rate And Exchange Rate In Nigeria: Does The Banking Sector Debt Level Matter?," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 8(2), pages 89-103, June.
    17. Buffie, Edward F. & Airaudo, M. & Zanna, Felipe, 2018. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate management in less developed countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 159-184.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand for money; Exchange Rate Volatility; Currency Substitution; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Nigeria.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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