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Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait

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  • Hesham Alogeel
  • Maher Hasan

Abstract

This paper investigates the factors that affect inflation in the GCC region by examining the inflationary processes in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The paper utilizes a model that accounts for foreign factors affecting inflation, such as trading partners' inflation and exchange rate pass-through effect, as well as domestic influences. The analysis concludes that, in the long run, higher inflation in trading partners' countries is the main driving force for inflation in the two countries, with significant but lower contributions from the exchange rate pass-through effect and oil prices. Demand and money supply shocks affect inflation in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Hesham Alogeel & Maher Hasan, 2008. "Understanding the Inflationary Process in the GCC Region: The Case of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait," IMF Working Papers 2008/193, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/193
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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2010/135, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Syed Abul Basher & Elsayed Mousa Elsamadisy, 2012. "Country heterogeneity and long-run determinants of inflation in the Gulf Arab states," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(2), pages 170-203, June.
    3. Amr Hosny, 2013. "Inflation In Egypt: Internal Or External Driven?," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-15.
    4. Marzovilla, Olga & Mele, Marco, 2010. "From dollar peg to basket peg:the experience of Kuwait in view of the GCC monetary unification," MPRA Paper 21605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Razek, Noha H.A. & McQuinn, Brian, 2021. "Saudi Arabia's currency misalignment and international competitiveness, accounting for geopolitical risks and the super-contango oil market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Murshed, Hasan & Nakibullah, Ashraf, 2015. "Price level and inflation in the GCC countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 239-252.
    7. Sana Naseem, 2018. "Macroeconomics Determinants of Saudi Arabia's Inflation 2000-2016: Evidence and Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 137-141.
    8. Kim, Won Joong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Impacts of global and domestic shocks on inflation and economic growth for actual and potential GCC member countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 298-317.
    9. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stráský, Jan, 2008. "Oil exporters: in search of an external anchor," Working Paper Series 958, European Central Bank.
    10. Marzovilla, Olga, 2010. "The impact of global economic imbalance on migrant workers and economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council," MPRA Paper 29466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2011. "Determinants of Inflation in GCC," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 141-158, January.
    12. Kamiar Mohaddes & Oral H. Williams, 2013. "Inflation Differentials In The Gcc: Does The Oil Cycle Matter?," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-23.
    13. Razek, Noha H.A. & Michieka, Nyakundi M., 2019. "OPEC and non-OPEC production, global demand, and the financialization of oil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 201-225.
    14. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2020. "Pass-through of import cost into consumer prices and inflation in GCC countries: Evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 89-101.
    15. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2016. "Impacts of Foreign and Domestic Structural Shocks on Consumer Prices of the GCC Countries," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(2), pages 34-43, December.
    16. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett & Nayef A. Alsadoun, 2017. "Estimating the Output Gap for Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 81-90, March.
    17. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Dombrecht, Michel, 2018. "Asymmetric import cost pass-through in GCC countries: Evidence from nonlinear panel analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 432-440.
    18. Jay, Squalli, 2011. "Is the dollar peg suitable for the largest economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 496-512, October.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Algeria: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/048, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Moayad Al Rasasi & Goblan Algahtani & Abdulrahman Alqahtani, 2017. "The Effects of Global Commodity Prices on Domestic Prices in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 590-594.

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