IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/15567.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Research on the Prediction of the likely Winners of the Euro 2008 Football Tournament

Author

Listed:
  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

The objective of this research is to provide a statistical measurement to predict the likely winners of international football tournaments with particular reference to the Euro 2008 football tournament. This research argues that there exists a positive relationship between the competitive balance and success in international football tournaments. The level of the competitive balance in a domestic football league is measured by the seasonal coefficients of variation (CV) of the end-of-season points. The CV values are employed as ranking indicators between the contesting countries in international football tournaments to predict the likely winners. The seasonal CV values are computed from the top divison football leagues of participating countries of Euro 1996, Euro 2000, Euro 2004, and Euro 2008, in order to rank and to predict the likely winner of these tournaments. The results indicate that the higher the level of domestic competition the better chance of winning an international football tournament. The CV ranking is also compared to UEFA ranking and to the odds of some well known bookmakers in predicting the likely winners of the Euro 2008 football tournament. On the basis of the overall results, this research predicts that the likely winners of the Euro 2008 football tournament would be France, Spain or Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "Research on the Prediction of the likely Winners of the Euro 2008 Football Tournament," MPRA Paper 15567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15567
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15567/1/MPRA_paper_15567.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "The Degree Of Competition In The European Football Leagues: A Statistical Approach," Others 0508001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    3. Andrew S. Zimbalist, 2002. "Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 111-121, May.
    4. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "Income Inequality, Competitive Balance and the Attractiveness of Team Sports: Some Evidence and a Natural Experiment from English Soccer," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Football Economics and Policy, chapter 9, pages 182-201, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Allen R. Sanderson, 2002. "The Many Dimensions of Competitive Balance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 204-228, May.
    6. Thomas Hoehn & Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Americanization of European football," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Football Economics and Policy, chapter 3, pages 52-96, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Ferda Halicioglu, 2006. "The impact of football point systems on the competitive balance: evidence from some european football leagues," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 2(2), pages 67-76, Dicembre.
    8. Jennett, Nicholas I, 1984. "Attendances, Uncertainty of Outcome and Policy in Scottish League Football," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 31(2), pages 176-198, June.
    9. Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "Can We Predict The Outcome Of The International Football Tournaments : The Case Of Euro 2000?," Microeconomics 0503008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kelly Goossens, 2006. "Competitive balance in european football: comparison by adapting measures: national measure of seasonal imbalance and Top 3," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 2(2), pages 77-122, Dicembre.
    11. Halicioglu Ferda, 2009. "Research on the Prediction of the likely Winners of the Euro 2008 Football Tournament," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-15, July.
    12. Peel, David A & Thomas, Dennis A, 1988. "Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for Football: An Analysis of Match Attendances in the English Football League," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 35(3), pages 242-249, August.
    13. Stefan Szymanski, 2010. "The Economic Design of Sporting Contests," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Comparative Economics of Sport, chapter 1, pages 1-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    14. Peter J. Sloane, 2000. "The Regulation of Professional Team Sports," IASE Conference Papers 0003, International Association of Sports Economists.
    15. Joshua Utt & Rodney Fort, 2002. "Pitfalls to Measuring Competitive Balance With Gini Coefficients," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(4), pages 367-373, November.
    16. repec:bla:scotjp:v:47:y:2000:i:4:p:431-55 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. John Goddard & Peter J. Sloane, 2005. "Economics of sport," Chapters, in: Simon W. Bowmaker (ed.), Economics Uncut, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Raymond Stefani, 1997. "Survey of the major world sports rating systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 635-646.
    19. Kelly Goossens, 2006. "Competitive Balance in European Football - Comparison by Adapting Measures: National Measure of Seasonal Imbalance and Top 3," IASE Conference Papers 0620, International Association of Sports Economists.
    20. Sloane, Peter J, 1971. "The Economics of Professional Football: The Football Club as a Utility Maximiser," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 121-146, June.
    21. Brad R. Humphreys, 2002. "Alternative Measures of Competitive Balance in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 133-148, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Halicioglu Ferda, 2009. "Research on the Prediction of the likely Winners of the Euro 2008 Football Tournament," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2012. "An empirical study of relationship between FIFA world ranking and domestic football competition level: the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 35662, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dorian Owen, 2014. "Measurement of competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 3, pages 41-59, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments," Industrial Organization 0508001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wladimir Andreff, 2009. "Équilibre compétitif et contrainte budgétaire dans une ligue de sport professionnel," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 60(3), pages 591-633.
    4. Meletakos, Panagiotis & Chatzicharistos, Dimitrios & Apostolidis, Nikolaos & Manasis, Vasilios & Bayios, Ioannis, 2016. "Foreign players and competitive balance in Greek basketball and handball championships," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 391-401.
    5. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2012. "An empirical study of relationship between FIFA world ranking and domestic football competition level: the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 35662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Verri, 2009. "Competitive Balance dopo la sentenza Bosman: il caso della pallavolo in Italia," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 5(1), pages 59-79, Maggio.
    7. Raul Caruso & Francesco Addesa & Marco Di Domizio, 2019. "The Determinants of the TV Demand for Soccer: Empirical Evidence on Italian Serie A for the Period 2008-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 25-49, January.
    8. Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio & J. James Reade, 2022. "Does certainty on the winner diminish the interest in sport competitions? The case of formula one," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 1059-1079, August.
    9. Paolo Di Betta & Carlo Amenta, 2010. "A die-hard aristocracy: competitive balance in Italian soccer, 1929-2009," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 6(2), pages 13-40, Settembre.
    10. Braun, Erik & Gyimesi, András, 2021. "Van-e esélyük a feljutó csapatoknak a bennmaradásra? Az európai labdarúgó-bajnokságok összehasonlítása az első osztály előnye alapján [Do novice top teams have a chance of remaining?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 863-889.
    11. Scelles, Nicolas (Сели, Николя) & Duran, Christophe (Дюра, Кристоф) & Bonnal, Liliane (Бонналь, Лилиан) & Goyeau, Daniel (Гойюс, Даниэль) & Andreff, Wladimir (Андрефф, Владимир), 2016. "Do all sporting prizes have a significant positive impact on attendance in a European national football league? Competitive intensity in the French Ligue 1 [Действительно Ли Все Спортивные Призы Ок," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 82-107, June.
    12. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    13. Anthony Macedo & Marta Ferreira Dias & Paulo Reis Mourão, 2023. "European Men's Club Football in the Eyes of Consumers: The Determinants of Television Broadcast Demand," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 579-623, June.
    14. Ferda Halicioglu, 2005. "Can We Predict The Outcome Of The International Football Tournaments : The Case Of Euro 2000?," Microeconomics 0503008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Allen R. Sanderson & John J. Siegfried, 2003. "Thinking about Competitive Balance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(4), pages 255-279, November.
    16. Ferda Halicioglu, 2006. "The impact of football point systems on the competitive balance: evidence from some european football leagues," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 2(2), pages 67-76, Dicembre.
    17. Partosch, Christoph, 2014. "Der Einfluss der Champions League auf die Wettbewerbsposition einzelner Vereine und die Competitive Balance der Bundesliga," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 3/2014, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
    18. Francesco Addesa, 2013. "La Domanda Di Sport Professionistico Nelle Leghe Minori: Analisi Comparata Lega Pro - Football League," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 9(2), pages 143-162, settembre.
    19. Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez & Julio del Corral & R. Todd Jewell & Jorge García-Unanue & Cornel Nesseler, 2019. "A Prospective Analysis of Competitive Balance Levels in Major League Soccer," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 54(1), pages 175-190, February.
    20. Pedro Garcia-del-Barrio & J. James Reade, 2023. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Fan Interest Surrounding Multiple Outcomes in Open European Football Leagues," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-02, Department of Economics, University of Reading.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Competitive balance; Football; Ranking; UEFA; Sports forecasts.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L8 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15567. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.