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Rating philosophy and dynamic properties of internal rating systems: A general framework and an application to backtesting

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  • Cornaglia, Anna
  • Morone, Marco

Abstract

The paper draws a general framework for asset and default dynamics, separating the influence of the economic cycle into a component which is embedded in the rating system and an unobservable risk factor that determines the movements of defaults around the ex ante estimated PDs. The two components – the sensitivity of ratings to credit cycle and conditional asset correlation - can be quantified through a Maximum Likelihood approach, giving a measure of the cyclicality of the rating system, and allowing for a number of applications: among those the modified binomial test proposed here.

Suggested Citation

  • Cornaglia, Anna & Morone, Marco, 2009. "Rating philosophy and dynamic properties of internal rating systems: A general framework and an application to backtesting," MPRA Paper 14711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14711
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14711/1/MPRA_paper_14711.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:uts:ppaper:v:1:y:2007:i:1:p:55-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    3. Daniel Roesch & Harald Scheule, 2007. "Stress-testing credit risk parameters: An application to retail loan portfolios," Published Paper Series 2007-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Dirk Tasche, 2006. "Validation of internal rating systems and PD estimates," Papers physics/0606071, arXiv.org.
    5. Petr Jakubík, 2006. "Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland," Working Papers IES 2006/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    6. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Blümke, Oliver, 2018. "On the cyclicality of default rates of banks: A comparative study of the asset correlation and diversification effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 65-77.
    2. Sokolov, Yuri, 2010. "Business cycle effects on portfolio credit risk: A simple FX Adjustment for a factor model," MPRA Paper 27222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. D. Th. Vezeris & C. J. Schinas & Th. S. Kyrgos & V. A. Bizergianidou & I. P. Karkanis, 2020. "Optimization of Backtesting Techniques in Automated High Frequency Trading Systems Using the d-Backtest PS Method," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(4), pages 975-1054, December.
    4. Michael Kalkbrener & Akwum Onwunta, 2009. "Validating Structural Credit Portfolio Models," Working Papers 014, COMISEF.
    5. Michael Kalkbrener & Natalie Packham, 2024. "A Markov approach to credit rating migration conditional on economic states," Papers 2403.14868, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rating philosophy; rating dynamics; cyclicality; asset correlation; migration matrices; ML estimation; backtesting; binomial test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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