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Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in Poland

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  • Rubaszek, Michał

Abstract

The paper presents an extended version of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate model (FFER). By introducing potential output into the specification of the foreign trade equations of the partial equilibrium FEER model we show that, under some plausible assumptions, the calculated level of the equilibrium exchange rate is consistent with the estimates of the behavioral equilibrium exchange (BEER). Moreover, we indicate that including the terms of trade as an explanatory variable in a reduced-form BEER equation for the real exchange rate might lead to the indeterminacy of the parameter estimates. The proposed model is applied to analyze fluctuations of the Polish zloty. We show that the real appreciation of the zloty is to a largely an equilibrium phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Rubaszek, Michał, 2008. "Economic convergence and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate in Poland," MPRA Paper 12910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12910
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    Cited by:

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    2. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Oskar Krzesicki & Roza Lewinska & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk, 2009. "An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD," NBP Working Papers 64, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Piotr Roszkowski & Kamila Sławińska & Andrzej Torój, 2014. "BEER tastes better in a panel of neighbours. On equilibrium exchange rates in CEE countries," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 34, pages 209-226.
    4. Ebrahim Hadian; & Najmeh Sajedianfard, 2018. "Monetary Fundamental-Based Exchange Rate Model in Iran: Applying a MS-TVTP Approach," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(2), pages 557-578, Spring.
    5. Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak & Jakub Mućk, 2022. "Global Value Chains and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Central European Economies," NBP Working Papers 354, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. Piotr Wdowiński, 2011. "Model monetarny kursu równowagi złoty/euro: analiza kointegracyjna," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 67-86.
    7. Andrea Salazar-Díaz & Aarón Levi Garavito-Acosta & Sergio Restrepo Ángel & Leidy Viviana Arcila-Agudelo, 2023. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 99, pages 33-78, July-Dece.
    8. Dudek, Sławomir & Pachucki, Dawid & Zachłod-Jelec, Magdalena & Zając, Tomasz & Kolski, Paweł & Fudała-Poradzińska, Iwona & Danielski, Kamil, 2012. "eMPF Econometric Model of Public Finance," MF Working Papers 14, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 12 Jun 2012.
    9. Michal Adam & Witold Kozinski & Janusz Zielinski, 2013. "To what extent can central banks influence exchange rates with foreign exchange interventions? The case of Poland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 279-291, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Abdelghani, Echchabi & Osman, Sayid & Isares, Mahamad & Khalid, Sorhiran & Zulhilmi, Zulkifli, 2011. "The implementation of Gulf Dinar among the GCC member countries and its possible impacts," MPRA Paper 28245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Lucian Claudiu ANGHEL & Laurentiu-Mihai TREAPAT, 2015. "Main Economic Policies in order to Manage an Optimum Accession of Romania to the Euro Zone," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 151-169, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fundamental equilibrium exchange rate; current account; foreign trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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