Dometi monetarne politike u uslovima izolacije (testiranje međuzavisnosti dinamike novčane mase, cena i privredne aktivnosti)[Scope of Monetary Policy in Conditions of Isolation (Testing the Interdependence of Money Supply, Prices and Economic Activity)]

Serbian. U uslovima izolacije (sankcije međunarodne zajednice) standardni instrumenti ekonomske politike usmereni na uspostavljanje spoljnoekonomske ravnoteže potisnuti su instrumentima monetarne politike, kojima se makroekonomska (ne)ravnoteža autonomno generiše u okviru zatvorenog sistema. U radu se ekonometrijskom analizom ispituje međuzavisnost novčane mase, koja je praktično postala jedini instrument kojim se deluje na ostvarivanje ekonomskih (i socijalnih) ciljeva, i industrijske proizvodnje i kretanja cena, koji su deklarisani ciljevi ekonomske politike, ali koji ujedno predstavljaju i odraz osnovnih neravnoteža na nacionalnom tržištu. Primenom testova kauzalnosti utvrđene su međuzavisnosti ovih agregata, a zatim je ukazano na mogućnosti i domete monetarne politike u narednom periodu. English. In conditions of isolation (sanctions of the international community), standard instruments of economic policy aimed at establishing foreign economic balance are suppressed by instruments of monetary policy, which autonomously generate macroeconomic (im)equilibrium within a closed system. The paper uses econometric analysis to examine the interdependence of the money supply, which practically has become the only instrument used to achieve economic (and social) goals, and industrial production and price movements, which are the declared goals of economic policy, but which at the same time represent a reflection of basic imbalances on the national market. By applying causality tests, the interdependencies of these aggregates were determined, and then the possibilities and scope of monetary policy in the following period were pointed out.