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Impact of Non-Oil Export on Nigeria’s Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Abdullahi, Isah Usman
  • Muhammad, Umar Farouq
  • Yahaya, Umar Isah

Abstract

This study used a disaggregated macroeconomic model and an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) to analyze the effects of non-oil exports (NOE) on Nigeria's economic growth from 1980 to 2021. Before estimating the model, unit root and co-integration tests were conducted to determine the stationarity and long-run properties of the variables. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test results indicated that all-time series were non-stationary at level but became stationary after first differencing. The Johansen co-integration test results revealed that the variables are co-integrated, suggesting a long-run equilibrium relationship among them. The ECM findings indicated that NOE components positively impacted Nigeria's economic growth in both the short and long run, although the impact was largely insignificant. Based on these results, it was recommended that Nigeria's export development strategy be refocused and reinforced to address supply capacity constraints in various NOE sectors. The argument is that the government can initially manage and develop these non-oil sectors and later transfer them to private enterprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullahi, Isah Usman & Muhammad, Umar Farouq & Yahaya, Umar Isah, 2024. "Impact of Non-Oil Export on Nigeria’s Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Approach," MPRA Paper 122084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:122084
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/122084/1/MPRA_paper_122084.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kamil Serto lu & Sevin Ugural & Festus Victor Bekun, 2017. "The Contribution of Agricultural Sector on Economic Growth of Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 547-552.
    2. Matthew J. Kromtit & Charles Kanadi & Dorathy P. Ndangra & Suleiman Lado, 2017. "Contribution of Non Oil Exports to Economic Growth in Nigeria (1985-2015)," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(4), pages 253-261, April.
    3. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    5. repec:hur:ijaraf:v:5:y:2015:i:1:p:190-198 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth: Non-Oil Export (NOE): Trade Openness: Exchange Rate;

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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