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Prévision des Cycles Budgétaires dans les Etats membres de l'Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA) :Une approche basée sur les Chaînes de Markov
[Forecasting Budgetary Cycles in the Member States of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU): A Markov Chain-Based Approach]

Author

Listed:
  • Agboton, Damien Joseph

Abstract

In this article, we model the various budgetary states of the eight member countries of the WAEMU using Markov Chains. A panel of 512 observations was constructed from BCEAO database covering the period 1960-2023. Our results highlight a dispersed convergence of states towards the budget deficit threshold imposed through the macroeconomic convergence criteria and identify Mali, Senegal and Benin as the top performers in the region in terms of effective deficit management.Moreover, fiscal consolidation is necessary for Côte d’Ivoire ,Guinea-Bissau, Burkina-Faso, Togo and Niger to stabilize their budget deficits in the long term and further boost economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Agboton, Damien Joseph, 2024. "Prévision des Cycles Budgétaires dans les Etats membres de l'Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA) :Une approche basée sur les Chaînes de Markov [Forecasting Budgetary Cycles in the," MPRA Paper 121821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:121821
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/121821/1/MPRA_paper_121821.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wong, Chorng-huey, 1977. "Demand for money in developing countries : Some theoretical and empirical results," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 59-86, January.
    2. repec:aer:wpaper:32 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Derrode, Stéphane & Pieczynski, Wojciech, 2013. "Unsupervised data classification using pairwise Markov chains with automatic copulas selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 81-98.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget Deficit; Economic growth; Markov Chains; Panel; WAEMU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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