IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/120067.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reserves, Prices, and Policy: An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Crop Reserves in Arab Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Chellai, Fatih

Abstract

Subject and purpose of work: In recent years, global food systems have faced challenges like disasters, extreme weather events, and market fluctuations, such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This study analyzes strategic crop reserves, specifically for wheat and rice, in Arab countries. It examines the objectives and obstacles associated with these reserves. Material and methods: different statistical methods have been used, including regression analysis and neural network prediction models. Results: Findings reveal significant agricultural production deficits in Arab economies. However, some countries maintain substantial crop reserves. We found an inverse relationship between wheat reserves and wheat prices . Additionally, energy prices correlate positively with agricultural commodity prices. Forecasting models anticipate short-term global grain stock stability but predict short-term increases in agricultural price indices (until 2024) followed by long-term decreases (by 2030). Conclusions: Policymakers should support agricultural strategies, particularly for strategic crops. To address current challenges, we suggest securing long-term contracts for strategic crops, diversifying suppliers, and avoiding reliance on a few sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Chellai, Fatih, 2024. "Reserves, Prices, and Policy: An Empirical Analysis of Strategic Crop Reserves in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 120067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:120067
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/120067/1/MPRA_paper_120067.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evan Fraser & Alexander Legwegoh & Krishna KC, 2015. "Food stocks and grain reserves: evaluating whether storing food creates resilient food systems," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5(3), pages 445-458, September.
    2. Mohamed Behnassi & Mahjoub El Haiba, 2022. "Implications of the Russia–Ukraine war for global food security," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 754-755, June.
    3. Donald F. Larson & Julian Lampietti & Christophe Gouel & Carlo Cafiero & John Roberts, 2014. "Food Security and Storage in the Middle East and North Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 48-73.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fatih Chellai, 2024. "Reserves, prices, and policy: An empirical analysis of strategic crop reserves in Arab nations," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 207-221.
    2. Caviedes, Julián & Ibarra, José Tomás & Calvet-Mir, Laura & Álvarez-Fernández, Santiago & Junqueira, André Braga, 2024. "Indigenous and local knowledge on social-ecological changes is positively associated with livelihood resilience in a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Brockhaus, Jan & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2015. "Grain emergency reserve cooperation – A theoretical analysis of benefits from a common emergency reserve," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212767, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Rogna, Marco, 2023. "The Effects of Rising Prices on Corn Production in Western African Countries," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334549, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    5. Christophe Gouel, 2014. "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 261-306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Donald F. Larson & Julian Lampietti & Christophe Gouel & Carlo Cafiero & John Roberts, 2014. "Food Security and Storage in the Middle East and North Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(1), pages 48-73.
    7. Gupta, Shivam & Modgil, Sachin & Choi, Tsan-Ming & Kumar, Ajay & Antony, Jiju, 2023. "Influences of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology on financial resilience of supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    8. Haoran Zhang & Limin Jiao & Cai Li & Zhongci Deng & Zhen Wang & Qiqi Jia & Xihong Lian & Yaolin Liu & Yuanchao Hu, 2024. "Global environmental impacts of food system from regional shock: Russia-Ukraine war as an example," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Oksana Radchenko & Leonid Tulush & Serhii Leontovych, 2023. "Financial instruments for ensuring national security: experience of Ukraine in military conditions," Insights into Regional Development, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 5(1), pages 10-25, March.
    11. Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2013. "The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices – Evidence for the MENA Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 448, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Gerald Marten & Nurcan Atalan-Helicke, 2015. "Introduction to the Symposium on American Food Resilience (Part 2)," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5(4), pages 537-542, December.
    13. Tripathi, Amarnath & Sardar, Sucheta & Shyam, Hari Shankar, 2023. "Hybrid crops, income, and food security of smallholder families: Empirical evidence from poor states of India," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Steve McCorriston & Donald MacLaren, 2024. "Market intermediaries, storage and policy reforms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 114-136, February.
    15. Ntsama, Mireille, 2012. "La relation de prix entre le Cameroun et le Gabon [Is there a food price transmission between Cameroon and Gabon?]," MPRA Paper 53771, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 May 2013.
    16. Xin, Baogui & Zhang, Mengwei, 2023. "Evolutionary game on international energy trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    17. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2015. "The transmission of oil and food prices to consumer prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 143-161, March.
    18. Rebekah Paci-Green & Gigi Berardi, 2015. "Do global food systems have an Achilles heel? The potential for regional food systems to support resilience in regional disasters," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5(4), pages 685-698, December.
    19. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    20. Shen Yuan & Kazuki Saito & Pepijn A. J. van Oort & Martin K. van Ittersum & Shaobing Peng & Patricio Grassini, 2024. "Intensifying rice production to reduce imports and land conversion in Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Strategic Food; Food Reserve; Food security; Arab Countries.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:120067. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.