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Reserves, prices, and policy: An empirical analysis of strategic crop reserves in Arab nations

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  • Fatih Chellai

    (Department of Basic Education, Ferhat Abbas University, Algeria)

Abstract

Subject and purpose of work In recent years, global food systems have faced challenges like disasters, extreme weather events, and market fluctuations, such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This study analyses strategic crop reserves, specifically for wheat and rice, in Arab countries. It examines the objectives and obstacles associated with these reserves. Material and methods different statistical methods have been used, including regression analysis and neural network prediction models. Results Findings reveal significant agricultural production deficits in Arab economies. However, some countries maintain substantial crop reserves. We found an inverse relationship between wheat reserves and wheat prices. Additionally, energy prices correlate positively with agricultural commodity prices. Forecasting models anticipate short-term global grain stock stability but predict short-term increases in agricultural price indices (until 2024) followed by long-term decreases (by 2030). Conclusions Policymakers should support agricultural strategies, particularly for strategic crops. To address current challenges, we suggest securing long-term contracts for strategic crops, diversifying suppliers, and avoiding reliance on a few sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Chellai, 2024. "Reserves, prices, and policy: An empirical analysis of strategic crop reserves in Arab nations," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 207-221.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecoreg:v:17:y:2024:i:2:p:207-221:n:1002
    DOI: 10.2478/ers-2024-0012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank & FAO & IFAD, 2009. "Improving Food Security in Arab Countries," World Bank Publications - Reports 23966, The World Bank Group.
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    3. Mohamed Behnassi & Mahjoub El Haiba, 2022. "Implications of the Russia–Ukraine war for global food security," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 754-755, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    strategic food; food reserve; food security; Arab countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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