A Psycho-Historical Analysis of Nations: The Example of Ukraine and Russia

This study investigates the influence of historical encounters with invasions and territorial fragmentation on the formation of a democratic political culture. Utilizing individual-level psychological theories, I illustrate that enduring occupations tend to foster pro-democratic values, such as a sense of resistance and autonomy. Additionally, the historical presence of territorial fragmentation contributes to the proliferation of diverse opinions, stimulating social dialogues and prompting citizens to advocate for a greater say and increased participation in the political sphere. Conversely, regions acting as occupiers and avoiding territorial division typically exhibit authoritarian governance, fostering submission to authorities and a distorted understanding of power. To validate these propositions, I employ Ukraine and Russia as illustrative examples. By applying a structural equation modeling to the World Values Survey data, I demonstrate that Ukraine, characterized by dynamic occupations and territorial fragmentation throughout its evolution as a nation, is more likely to belong to a class reflecting a more democratic political culture. In contrast, Russia's history of a unified authoritarian state is associated with an increased probability of belonging to a class describing a less democratic culture.