IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/115714.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sanctions and Imports of Essential Goods; A Closer Look at the Equipo Anova (2021) Results

Author

Listed:
  • Rodriguez, Francisco

Abstract

We revisit the results of Equipo Anova (2021), who claim to find evidence of an improvement in Venezuelan imports of food and medicines associated with the adoption of U.S. financial sanctions towards Venezuela in 2017. We show that their results are consequence of data coding errors and questionable methodological choices, including the use an unreasonable functional form that implies a counterfactual of negative imports in the absence of sanctions, the omission of data accounting for four-fifths of the country’s food imports at the time of sanctions and incorrect application of regression discontinuity methods. Once these errors are corrected, the evidence of a significant improvement in the level and rate of change in imports of essentials disappears.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodriguez, Francisco, 2022. "Sanctions and Imports of Essential Goods; A Closer Look at the Equipo Anova (2021) Results," MPRA Paper 115714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115714
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/115714/1/MPRA_paper_115714.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2016. "The impact of US sanctions on poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 110-119.
    2. Catherine Hausman & David S. Rapson, 2018. "Regression Discontinuity in Time: Considerations for Empirical Applications," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 533-552, October.
    3. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    4. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian & Steinbach, Armin, 2018. "Economic sanctions and human rights: Quantifying the legal proportionality principle," ILE Working Paper Series 12, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    5. Christopher E.S. WARBURTON, 2016. "The International Law and Economics of Coercive Diplomacy: Macroeconomic Effects and Empirical Findings," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1), pages 35-52.
    6. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "Crimea and punishment: the impact of sanctions on Russian economy and economies of the euro area," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 39-51.
    7. Mathilde Godard, 2017. "Targeting disability insurance applications with screening," Post-Print halshs-01660800, HAL.
    8. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    9. Lee, Myoung-jae, 2016. "Matching, Regression Discontinuity, Difference in Differences, and Beyond," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190258740.
    10. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:138 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku & Mahadevan, Renuka, 2016. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Income Inequality of Target States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-11.
    12. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2015. "The impact of UN and US economic sanctions on GDP growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 110-125.
    13. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    14. Gharehgozli, Orkideh, 2017. "An estimation of the economic cost of recent sanctions on Iran using the synthetic control method," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 141-144.
    15. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    16. Lovett, Nicholas & Xue, Yuhan, 2022. "Rare homicides, criminal behavior, and the returns to police labor," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 172-195.
    17. Dursun Peksen & A. Cooper Drury, 2010. "Coercive or Corrosive: The Negative Impact of Economic Sanctions on Democracy," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 240-264, August.
    18. Rodriguez, Francisco & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1999. "Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 277-303, September.
    19. Ioana M. PETRESCU, 2016. "The Humanitarian Impact Of Economic Sanctions," Europolity – Continuity and Change in European Governance - New Series, Department of International Relations and European Integration, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 10(2), pages 1-41.
    20. Dubey, Jay Dev, 2020. "Income elasticity of demand for health care and it's change over time: Across the income groups and levels of health expenditure in India," Working Papers 20/324, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heydarian, Samira & Pahlavani, Mosayeb & Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein, 2023. "Financial Sanctions and the Imports of Intermediate and Capital Goods in Iran: DID Method," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 101-134.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco Rodr'iguez, 2022. "Sanctions and Imports of Essential Goods: A Closer Look at the Equipo Anova (2021) Results," Papers 2212.09904, arXiv.org.
    2. Barseghyan, Gayane, 2019. "Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    4. Moghaddasi Kelishomi, Ali & Nisticò, Roberto, 2022. "Employment effects of economic sanctions in Iran," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Chen, Yin E. & Fu, Qiang & Zhao, Xinxin & Yuan, Xuemei & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2019. "International sanctions’ impact on energy efficiency in target states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-34.
    7. Firat Demir & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2022. "Gendered effects of sanctions on manufacturing employment: Evidence from Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2040-2069, November.
    8. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    9. Jakub Horak, 2021. "Sanctions as a Catalyst for Russia’s and China’s Balance of Trade: Business Opportunity," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, January.
    10. Francisco Rodr'iguez, 2023. "Estimating causal effects of sanctions impacts: what role for country-level studies?," Papers 2305.14605, arXiv.org.
    11. Goeun Lee & Myoung-jae Lee, 2023. "Regression Discontinuity for Binary Response and Local Maximum Likelihood Estimator to Extrapolate Treatment," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(2), pages 182-208, April.
    12. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    13. Arnaud Cedric Kamkoum, 2023. "The Federal Reserve's Response to the Global Financial Crisis and Its Long-Term Impact: An Interrupted Time-Series Natural Experimental Analysis," Papers 2305.12318, arXiv.org.
    14. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2022. "Exploring the multidimensional effects of China's coal de-capacity policy: A regression discontinuity design," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Jun Wen & Xinxin Zhao & Quan-Jing Wang & Chun-Ping Chang, 2021. "The impact of international sanctions on energy security," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(3), pages 458-480, May.
    16. Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocío Titiunik, 2022. "Regression Discontinuity Designs," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 821-851, August.
    17. Chen, Mo & Xue, Wei-Xian & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping & Liu, Xiaoxia, 2024. "The impact of economic sanctions on the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 163-174.
    18. Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Do, Manh Hung, 2021. "Impact of economic sanctions and counter-sanctions on the Russian Federation’s trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 267-278.
    19. Choi, Jin-young & Lee, Myoung-jae, 2018. "Relaxing conditions for local average treatment effect in fuzzy regression discontinuity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 47-50.
    20. Choi, Jin-young & Lee, Myoung-jae, 2023. "Complier and monotonicity for Fuzzy Multi-score Regression Discontinuity with partial effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    21. Ivan A Canay & Vishal Kamat, 2018. "Approximate Permutation Tests and Induced Order Statistics in the Regression Discontinuity Design," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1577-1608.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Venezuela; Sanctions; Imports; Economic Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115714. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.