IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/11473.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A multiple regression model for inflation rate in Romania in the enlarged EU

Author

Listed:
  • Falnita, Eugen
  • Sipos, Ciprian

Abstract

The main goal of Romanian monetary authorities at this point is to maintain the inflation rate in the proposed target. In that respect, the process of disinflation was due to considerably slower raises in administered and volatile prices, whose effects ran counter to the inflationary impact of the newly introduced indirect tax on alcohol and tobacco products. The persistence of inflationary risk associated with the current macroeconomic context, largely as a result of the increasing of some indirect taxes and of fast expansion in domestic demand, prompted the monetary authorities to continue the gradually tighten policy. Those facts makes necessary to elaborate a model that studies the trend of inflationary process due to most important influence factors. A very important factorial variable is the average interest rate on credit institutions with direct implications in the evolution of the domestic demand. Another variable used by authorities is the minimum reserve requirements on Romanian Leu denominated liabilities. It was increased in the last period to slowing down the speed of growth of credit in domestic currency. All these conditions are considered in the process of elaboration of the multiple regression models for Romania in the enlarged EU. A very important result of analysis of this model is that the inflation rate in Romania is slowing down, even with the negative impact of price adjustments after integration. Also, the model underlines the National Bank of Romania’s significant tools for apply its monetary policy with the constraints of the EU. Final conclusions of the analysis of the multiple regression models relieve the necessity to have stronger links of the Romanian economy with the countries from the EU. In the perspective of complete integration, all domains have to connect stronger than now with the European standards. In the same time Romanian people have to understand all the benefits and all the constraints of integration in the enlarged EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Falnita, Eugen & Sipos, Ciprian, 2007. "A multiple regression model for inflation rate in Romania in the enlarged EU," MPRA Paper 11473, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11473
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11473/1/MPRA_paper_11473.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hendry,David F. & Morgan,Mary S., 1997. "The Foundations of Econometric Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521588706, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Todorović, Jadranka Đurović & Tomić, Zoran & Denić, Nebojša & Petković, Dalibor & Kojić, Nenad & Petrović, Jelena & Petković, Biljana, 2018. "Applicability of Newton’s law of cooling in monetary economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 494(C), pages 209-217.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Guido W. Imbens, 2022. "Causality in Econometrics: Choice vs Chance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(6), pages 2541-2566, November.
    3. Aurélien Goutsmedt & Erich Pinzon-Fuchs & Matthieu Renault & Francesco Sergi, 2015. "Criticizing the Lucas Critique: Macroeconometricians' Response to Robert Lucas," Post-Print halshs-01179114, HAL.
    4. Guido W. Imbens, 2020. "Potential Outcome and Directed Acyclic Graph Approaches to Causality: Relevance for Empirical Practice in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1129-1179, December.
    5. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2005. "The First Fifty Years of Modern Econometrics," Working Papers 544, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Francisco Louca, 1999. "The econometric challenge to Keynes: arguments and contradictions in the early debates about a late issue," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 404-438.
    7. James H. Stock & Francesco Trebbi, 2003. "Retrospectives: Who Invented Instrumental Variable Regression?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 177-194, Summer.
    8. James J. Heckman & Rodrigo Pinto, 2018. "Unordered Monotonicity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(1), pages 1-35, January.
    9. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2007. "Representation in Econometrics: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers 583, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Belegri-Roboli, Athena & Arapis, Gerasimos, 2009. "Early Nonlinear Modelling in Economic Analysis: The Hicks Model for Greece Revisited," MPRA Paper 67112, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Heckman, James & Pinto, Rodrigo, 2015. "Causal Analysis After Haavelmo," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 115-151, February.
    12. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    13. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Max Albert, 2004. "The Voting Power Approach," European Union Politics, , vol. 5(1), pages 139-146, March.
    15. Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestiwch, "undated". "The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run," Economics Papers W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    16. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Marcel Boumans & Ariane Dupont-Kieffer, 2011. "A History of the Histories of Econometrics," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 43(5), pages 5-31, Supplemen.
    18. T. P. Koirala Ph.D., 2009. "Long-run Relationships of Macroeconomic Variables in Nepal: A VAR Approach," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 21, pages 99-120, April.
    19. Eilev S. Jansen, 2002. "Statistical Issues in Macroeconomic Modelling," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation rate; econometric model; EU integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11473. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.