دالة الاستهلاك والطلب الفعال وفقا لأنصبة السوق المصري من اللحوم الحمراء المجمدة المستوردة[Consumption function and effective demand for imported frozen red meat by Egyptian market shares]

The study estimated the consumption function of imported frozen red meat using the data derived from the sample field survey for the household expenditure and consumption in 2015 conducted and issued by (CAPMAS). The best fitted model form was the double logarithm-inverse function. The effective demand model for such commodity was also derived for prediction of consumption in 2020. The analysis showed that 86% of the change in per capita consumption of imported frozen red meat was due to the change in the annual per capita income. The statistical significance of the estimated intercept of the consumption function implied that there are other factors rather than income affecting the annual consumption, particularly, variation in consumer's taste between urban, rural, coastal and agricultural regions. The estimated income elasticity of the demand for imported frozen red meat showed that the Egyptian market is classified into four categories. The first was of the lowest annual per capita income and represented 76% of the population where such elasticity coefficient amounted to 1.9, i.e. the imported frozen red meat was considered as a luxury good within such category. The second segment of the population (10%) showed an income elasticity about 0.85, i.e. consumption of imported red meat frozen as a semi- luxury good. The third segment (7%) of a higher income level than the two previous ones showed an income elasticity about 0.13, i.e. such commodity was considered as a necessary good. The fourth segment of population (7%) of the highest income showed an income elasticity about elasticity -1.16, i.e. the imported frozen red meat was considered as inferior good with respect to income level. Projection of the quantity demanded of imported frozen red meat segmented by the consumers behavior according to income level and by applying the effective demand model showed that while the three-quarters of the population earning the lowest income level would raise their annual demand for such commodity from 111 thousand tons in 2015, to about 326 thousand tons in 2020, the second higher income segment would raise the demanded quantity from 31 thousand tons, in 2015 to about 66 thousand tons in 2020. The demand of the higher income third segment would raise from 20 thousand tons in 2015 to about 24 thousand tons in 2020 The highest income segment would raise from 19 thousand tons in 2015 to about 21 thousand tons the demand for imported frozen red meat in 2020. The study recommends that the concerned government institutions should utilize from the predicted quantities according to the income level categories to generate a rational system of accessibility of imported frozen red meat, e.g. by distributing a quota via the smart cards of food subsidy to assure that the low-income category that approaches more than three quarters of the population, have reached reasonable amount of cheap meat and to control its Leak