IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/114380.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effets non linéaires de la politique budgétaire sur la croissance économique au Cameroun
[Non-linear effects of fiscal policy on economic economic growth in Cameroon]

Author

Listed:
  • Ngah Ntiga, Louis-Henri

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to examine the non-linear effects of fiscal policy on economic growth in Cameroon conditional on external public debt. The results confirm the existence of non-linearities in the "fiscal policy - economic growth" relationship. Through the modelling logic of Hansen (2000) of threshold models, it was observed that the optimal threshold of the external debt in Cameroon is -38.98% of GDP. Thus, in a critical regime, fiscal policy does not favour economic growth. Moreover, when the level of of external debt exceeds the threshold of 12.014% of GDP (which corresponds to the current situation in Cameroon), tax revenues have recessionary effects on growth while current expenditure has expansionary effects. These results point out to the public authorities that excessive indebtedness can lead to disparities in the economy and that it is time to find other sources of financing than external debt, such as internal debt and oil revenues. Finally, the state should consider increasing current expenditure such as personnel costs in order to achieve growth and substantially reduce the tax rates that generate tax revenues.

Suggested Citation

  • Ngah Ntiga, Louis-Henri, 2022. "Effets non linéaires de la politique budgétaire sur la croissance économique au Cameroun [Non-linear effects of fiscal policy on economic economic growth in Cameroon]," MPRA Paper 114380, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114380
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/114380/1/MPRA_paper_114380.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    2. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    3. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    6. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
    7. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
    8. Costas Azariadis & Allan Drazen, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(2), pages 501-526.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miao, Ke & Li, Kunpeng & Su, Liangjun, 2020. "Panel threshold models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 137-170.
    2. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
    3. Zhang, Xiaobei & Wang, Xiaojun, 2021. "Measures of human capital and the mechanics of economic growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Stöllinger, Roman, 2013. "International spillovers in a world of technology clubs," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 19-35.
    5. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:114 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 135-150, March.
    7. Gerhard Reitschuler & Rupert Sendlhofer, 2011. "Fiscal policy, trigger points and interest rates: Additional evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 2011-23, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    8. Abdenour, Redouan & Tounsi, Said, 2015. "Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth: Moroccan Case," MPRA Paper 69830, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    9. Martins, Luis F., 2021. "The US debt–growth nexus along the business cycle," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    11. Laurent Callot & Mehmet Caner & Anders Bredahl Kock & Juan Andres Riquelme, 2017. "Sharp Threshold Detection Based on Sup-Norm Error Rates in High-Dimensional Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 250-264, April.
    12. Kummer-Noormamode, Sabina, 2018. "The Relationship between Public Debt and Economic Growth: Nonlinearity and Country-Specificity," MPRA Paper 98075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Yang, Lixiong & Su, Jen-Je, 2018. "Debt and growth: Is there a constant tipping point?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 133-143.
    14. Hajamini, Mehdi, 2015. "The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 43-58.
    15. Bruce E. Hansen, 2017. "Regression Kink With an Unknown Threshold," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 228-240, April.
    16. Salwa TRABELSI, 2017. "Public education expenditure and economic growth: the educational quality threshold effect," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 45, pages 99-112.
    17. Sailesh Tanna & Chengchun Li & Glauco De Vita, 2018. "The role of external debt in the foreign direct investment–growth relationship," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 393-412, October.
    18. Chiu, Chien-Liang & Chang, Ting-Huan, 2009. "What proportion of renewable energy supplies is needed to initially mitigate CO2 emissions in OECD member countries?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(6-7), pages 1669-1674, August.
    19. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Lina Garsviene & Janina Seputiene, 2021. "Empirical Evidence on Factors Conditioning the Turning Point of the Public Debt–Growth Relationship," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-22, December.
    20. Massacci, Daniele, 2017. "Least squares estimation of large dimensional threshold factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 101-129.
    21. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Economic growth; Threshold models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:114380. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.