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Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market Movement: Evidence from Ghana

Author

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  • Adam, Anokye M.
  • Tweneboah, George

Abstract

This study examines the role of macroeconomic variables on stock prices movement in Ghana. We use the Databank stock index to represent Ghana stock market and (a) inward foreign direct investments, (b) the treasury bill rate (as a measure of interest rates), (c) the consumer price index (as a measure of inflation), and (d) the exchange rate as macroeconomic variables. We analyze both long-run and short-run dynamic relationships between the stock market index and the economic variable with quarterly data for the above variables from 1991.1 to 2006.4 using Johansen's multivariate cointegration test and innovation accounting techniques. We established that there is cointegration between macroeconomic variables identified and Stock prices in Ghana indicating long run relationship. Results of Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) indicate that interest rate and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are the key determinants of the share price movements in Ghana.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, Anokye M. & Tweneboah, George, 2008. "Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market Movement: Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 11256, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11256
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Alagidede, 2009. "Are African Stock Markets Integrated with the Rest of the World?," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 11(1), pages 37-53.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
    3. Ali Anari & James Kolari, 2001. "Stock Prices And Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, December.
    4. Robert H. DeFina, 1991. "Does inflation depress the stock market?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-12.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; Innovation Accounting; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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