Poverty and Its Determinants in Guinea-Bissau

Given the poor economic performance of Guinea-Bissau over the last few years, including a severe recession toward the end of 2002, poverty is likely to be high and to have risen in recent years even compared to its high postconflict level. The first objective of this chapter is to estimate the share of the population in poverty in 2002, predict how it may have evolved since then, and assess the levels of growth that will be required to reduce poverty measures in the future. The chapter also provides a brief poverty profile and an analysis of the determinants of poverty using the 2002 nationally representative survey, which was recently made available for analysis. Geographic location, demographic structure (both household size and headship), employment (both in terms of sector and type), education, and migration all have potentially large effects on the consumption level and thereby poverty of households.