IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/11114.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena?: Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta
[Which is the growth of long term of the Chilean economy?]

Author

Listed:
  • Idrovo Aguirre, Byron

Abstract

The objective of this study is to estimate the Chilean economy’s growth rate in a context of full employment of the productive resources. As reference, some experts estimate at that the long term growth of the activity has fallen from 5 per cent to a rank between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent in most recent months. We conclude formally, from the use of univariate time series models –including a deterministic trend (with structural breaks) and a stochastic trend (with and without regime switching), that the long term growth rate would be marginally below that rank (somewhat superior to 4 per cent) and with a moderate adjustment velocity when the activity relays far from the steady state (up to one year).

Suggested Citation

  • Idrovo Aguirre, Byron, 2008. "¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena?: Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta [Which is the growth of long term of the Chilean economy?]," MPRA Paper 11114, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Aug 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11114/1/MPRA_paper_11114.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Johnson, 2001. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(115), pages 291-319.
    2. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
    3. Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
    5. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre & Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, 2019. "Backcasting cement production and characterizing cement’s economic cycles for Chile 1991–2015," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1829-1852, November.
    2. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron & Contreras, Javier, 2015. "Back-splicing of cement production and characterization of its economic cycle: The case of Chile (1991-2015)," MPRA Paper 67387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2015.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sengul, Gonul & Tasci, Murat, 2020. "Unemployment flows, participation, and the natural rate of unemployment: Evidence from turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2004. "Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach," Working Papers UWEC-2004-22, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    3. Fondeur, Y. & Karamé, F., 2013. "Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 117-125.
    4. Brand, Claus & Mazelis, Falk, 2019. "Taylor-rule consistent estimates of the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 2257, European Central Bank.
    5. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2005. "An Alternative Trend-Cycle Decomposition using a State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-44, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas d’une variable," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 325-356, mars et j.
    7. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
    8. Urbina, Jilber, 2014. "Producto Potencial y Brecha del Producto en Nicaragua [Potential output and output gap in Nicaragua]," MPRA Paper 75592, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2015.
    9. Surajit Deb, 2003. "Terms of Trade and Supply Response of Indian Agriculture: Analysis in Cointegration Framework," Working papers 115, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    10. Jorge E. Restrepo, 2008. "Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 492-516, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    11. Jorge E. Restrepo, 2006. "Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 361, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Myroslav Pidkuyko, 2014. "Dynamics of Consumption and Dividends over the Business Cycle," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp522, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    13. Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2015. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition Of Output And Euro Area Inflation Forecasts: A Real-Time Approach Based On Model Combination," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 363-393, March.
    14. Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
    15. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2006. "State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-029, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    16. Taylor, Andrew & Shepherd, David & Duncan, Stephen, 2005. "The structure of the Australian growth process: A Bayesian model selection view of Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 628-645, July.
    17. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Choi, Kyongwook, 2007. "Characteristics of permanent and transitory returns in oil-sensitive emerging stock markets: The case of GCC countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 231-245, July.
    18. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    19. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2006. "A comparison of alternative asymptotic frameworks to analyse a structural change in a linear time trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 423-447, November.
    20. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economía; Ciclos; Crecimiento; Tendencia; Filtro de Kalman;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.