IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/110516.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An empirical investigation on efficient market test for the Nigerian stock exchange (NSE)

Author

Listed:
  • Okotori, Tonprebofa
  • Ayunku, Peter

Abstract

This research was an investigation to prove empirically the existence in the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE) of the lowest level of efficiency(weak-form). Monthly data on the (ASI) retrieved from NSE that spanned from January 1985 to December 2018 was utilized in the analysis. The revelation of dependence on changes in stock prices show that past information on prices could be utilized in estimating future prices, and this violates what constitutes a weak-form efficient market. Evidence from significant Z-statistics shows the series is non-random and the returns reveal serial dependence. Theforegoing lead to the conclusion that the NSE does not exhibit randomness neither is weak-efficient.Where the price of stocks showed a correlation that is positive and very significantis areflection of the scenario that points to the fact that these stock prices only have a partial impact as regards effect on the deterministic value of stocks that is fair. There is risk mispricing and the wrong allocation of investment capital. There is an implication that investment funds are not channelled into areas where they are most needed and this result in inhibited development and growth in the economy. Existence of non-randomness on the returns of the ASI could be dependent on a "no change" stock prices or "zero returns", and is a product of the preponderance of stocks in NSE's composite ASI that are traded rather infrequently. The results reported in our unique study could be nested on the nature of the environment's available information set that is characterized by poor availability of reliable information and this as a result of the pattern of movement in the composite price index of the NSE.

Suggested Citation

  • Okotori, Tonprebofa & Ayunku, Peter, 2019. "An empirical investigation on efficient market test for the Nigerian stock exchange (NSE)," MPRA Paper 110516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110516
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110516/1/MPRA_paper_110516.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Magnusson & B. Wydick, 2002. "How Efficient are Africa's Emerging Stock Markets?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 141-156.
    2. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Abbas Valadkhani & Surachai Chancharat, 2008. "Dynamic linkages between Thai and international stock markets," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(5), pages 425-441, September.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    6. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Post-Print hal-01618347, HAL.
    7. Md Zobaer Hasan & Anton Abdulbasah Kamil & Adli Mustafa & Md Azizul Baten, 2012. "Stochastic Frontier Model Approach for Measuring Stock Market Efficiency with Different Distributions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(5), pages 1-9, May.
    8. Shinichi Hirota & Shyam Sunder, 2002. "Stock Market as a 'Beauty Contest': Investor Beliefs and Price Bubbles sans Dividend Anchors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm2, Yale School of Management.
    9. Appiah-Kusi, Joe & Menyah, Kojo, 2003. "Return predictability in African stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 247-270.
    10. Farmer, Roger E. A., 2014. "How the Economy Works: Confidence, Crashes and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199360307.
    11. Mookerjee, Rajen & Yu, Qiao, 1999. "An empirical analysis of the equity markets in China," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 41-60, June.
    12. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01618347, HAL.
    13. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Tang, Sam Hak Kan & Wu, Yanrui, 2003. "The efficiency of the Chinese stock market and the role of the banks," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 593-609, August.
    14. R. Olowe, 1999. "Weak Form Efficiency of the Nigerian Stock Market: Further Evidence," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 11(1), pages 54-68.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Benjamín Duarte Duarte & Juan Manuel Mascare?nas Pérez-Iñigo, 2014. "Comprobación de la eficiencia débil en los principales mercados financieros latinoamericanos," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    2. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    3. Abdul Rahman & Samir Saadi, 2007. "Is South Korea's stock market efficient? A note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 71-74.
    4. Akber, Ushna & Muhammad, Nabeel, 2013. "Is Pakistan Stock Market moving towards Weak-form efficiency? Evidence from the Karachi Stock Exchange and the Random Walk Nature of free-float of shares of KSE 30 Index," MPRA Paper 49128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The random walk hypothesis for Chinese stock markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 117-126, June.
    6. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Working Papers hal-02187362, HAL.
    7. Majumder, Debasish, 2012. "When the market becomes inefficient: Comparing BRIC markets with markets in the USA," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 84-92.
    8. Pyemo Afego, 2012. "Weak Form Efficiency of the Nigerian Stock Market: An Empirical Analysis (1984 2009)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 340-347.
    9. Abdul Haque & Hung-Chun Liu & Fakhar-Un-Nisa, 2011. "Testing the Weak Form Efficiency of Pakistani Stock Market (2000 2010)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 153-162.
    10. Kian-Ping Lim & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Melvin J. Hinich, 2009. "The Weak-form Efficiency of Chinese Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 8(2), pages 133-163, May.
    11. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2014. "The relationship between oil prices and the Nigerian stock market. An analysis based on fractional integration and cointegration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 328-333.
    12. Gyamfi NE & Kyei KA & Gill R, 2016. "African Stock Markets and Return Predictability," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(5), pages 91-99.
    13. Truong Dong Loc & Ger Lanjouw & Robert Lensink, 2010. "Stock-market efficiency in thin-trading markets: the case of the Vietnamese stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3519-3532.
    14. Kian-Ping Lim & Robert Brooks, 2009. "Are Chinese stock markets efficient? Further evidence from a battery of nonlinearity tests," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 147-155.
    15. Assefa, Tibebe A. & Mollick, André Varella, 2014. "African stock market returns and liquidity premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 325-342.
    16. Alagidede, Paul, 2011. "Return behaviour in Africa's emerging equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 133-140, May.
    17. Thomas Delcey & Francesco Sergi, 2019. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Rational Expectations. How Did They Meet and Live (Happily?) Ever After," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02187362, HAL.
    18. Madhavi Latha Challa & Venkataramanaiah Malepati & Siva Nageswara Rao Kolusu, 2020. "S&P BSE Sensex and S&P BSE IT return forecasting using ARIMA," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, December.
    19. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11.
    20. Christian Urom & Gideon Ndubuisi & Jude Ozor, 2021. "Economic activity, and financial and commodity markets’ shocks: An analysis of implied volatility indexes," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 51-66.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nigeria Stock Exchange; all shares index; efficient market hypothesis; random walk hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110516. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.