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GDP Forecast of the Biggest GCC Economies Using ARIMA

Author

Listed:
  • Youssef, Jamile
  • Ishker, Nermeen
  • Fakhreddine, Nour

Abstract

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are considered one of the fastest growing economies. This paper aims to empirically forecast the economic activity of the vastest GCC countries: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. An Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model for the three countries Gross Domestic Product is obtained using the Box-Jenkins methodology during the 1980 - 2020 period. The appropriate models for the three economies are of ARIMA (0,2,1), the forecasts are at a 95% confidence level and predicts a growth in the three countries for the upcoming five years.

Suggested Citation

  • Youssef, Jamile & Ishker, Nermeen & Fakhreddine, Nour, 2021. "GDP Forecast of the Biggest GCC Economies Using ARIMA," MPRA Paper 108912, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:108912
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward E. Leamer, 2009. "Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-46389-4, December.
    2. Ning, Wei & Kuan-jiang, Bian & Zhi-fa, Yuan, 2010. "Analysis and Forecast of Shaanxi GDP Based on the ARIMA Model," Asian Agricultural Research, USA-China Science and Culture Media Corporation, vol. 2(01), pages 1-4, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA Model; GDP; forecasting; GCC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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