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Effects of North American Free Trade Agreement on the US Labor Market: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ozturk, Mustafa
  • Aras, Osman Nuri

Abstract

One of the political debates on negative effects of the economic integration between the USA and the other members of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) Canada and Mexico is the rise of unemployment. This study aims to identify whether this thesis is true or not. For that the relations between the statistical variables employment, export, import, wages and gross domestic product were estimated through Autoregressive Distributive Lag model (ARDL). Empirical findings show that the import from the NAFTA countries has negative effect on the employment in the long run while its effect on the employment is positive in the short run. However, both the short run and the long run effects are so small that the negative effect is negligible comparing to the benefits of the economic integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozturk, Mustafa & Aras, Osman Nuri, 2020. "Effects of North American Free Trade Agreement on the US Labor Market: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," MPRA Paper 108360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:108360
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
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    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Mary E. Burfisher & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2001. "The Impact of NAFTA on the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 125-144, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA); employment; trade; Autoregressive Distributive Lag model (ARDL).;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements

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