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The Long Recession and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  • Tsoulfidis, Lefteris
  • Tsaliki, Persefoni

Abstract

In this article, we argue the rate of profit in combination with the movement of the real net profits determines the phase-change of the economy in its long cyclical pattern. Since WWII, the US and the world economy have experienced two such long cycles. The pandemic COVID-19 has deepened a recession that has been already underway since 2007. The growth rates in the first post-pandemic years are expected to be high; however, soon after, the economies will find themselves back to their old recessionary growth paths. The onset of a new long cycle requires the restoration of profitability, which can be sustained only through the introduction of ‘disruptive’ innovations backed by suitable institutional arrangements.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Tsaliki, Persefoni, 2021. "The Long Recession and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic," MPRA Paper 107737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107737
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long recession; secular stagnation; pandemic; long cycles; institutional changes; disruptive innovations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • D33 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Factor Income Distribution
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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