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The Actual U.S. Unemployment Rate in 2019 Was Twice the Official Rate, and the Phillips Curve

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  • John Komlos

Abstract

The official U.S. unemployment rate is an inadequate measure of labor market conditions. This poses a major challenge for basic research and for successful economic policy. In this piece, the author proposes a new definition of unemployment is proposed. It considers those part-time workers who would like to work full time as 62.7% employed and 37.3% unemployed inasmuch as this is the proportion of time they work relative to full-time workers. New monthly estimates of the unemployment rate are calculated for the period 1994–2019 and find that their average during this 25-year period was 10.7% or 5.0 percentage points above the official rate of 5.7%.

Suggested Citation

  • John Komlos, 2021. "The Actual U.S. Unemployment Rate in 2019 Was Twice the Official Rate, and the Phillips Curve," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 64(1), pages 51-74, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:challe:v:64:y:2021:i:1:p:51-74
    DOI: 10.1080/05775132.2020.1863547
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Tsaliki, Persefoni, 2021. "The Long Recession and the Economic Consequences of the Pandemic," MPRA Paper 107738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gökten, Meryem & Heimberger, Philipp & Lichtenberger, Andreas, 2024. "How far from full employment? The European unemployment problem revisited," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Luminița Chivu & George Georgescu, 2023. "The foundation of real-world economics: what every student needs to know," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 343-350.
    4. Lambert, Thomas, 2022. "The Great Resignation, Unemployment, and Underemployment in the US: A Study of Labor Market Segmentation," MPRA Paper 114067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tsoulfidis, Lefteris & Tsaliki, Persefoni, 2021. "The Long Recession and Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic," MPRA Paper 107737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2022. "The updated Okun method for estimation of potential output with alternative measures of labor underutilization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 158-178.

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